The Week in Preview: Shanghai

How about a Masters tournament for its own sake? It would be nice to say that there's a lot at stake as all of the top men re-gather in Shanghai for the first time since the U.S. Open. But not only has the year-end No. 1 ranking been settled—do I need to tell you it's going to be Novak Djokovic?—it’s also pretty clear who’s going to make it across the finish line in the race to next month’s World Tour Finals in London. Four of the eight spots are booked, by Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and Stan Wawrinka. And while the next four, Tomas Berdych, Rafael Nadal, Kei Nishikori, and David Ferrer, haven’t made it official, they’re closing in. Ferrer, who’s currently at No. 8, is 1,000 points ahead of No. 9 Richard Gasquet.

But we don’t watch tournaments for what might happen in the future. The Top 16 have all made the trip to China—the $4.7 million in prize money may have something to do with that—and they’re packed into a tight, 56-player draw. Here’s a look at how it might play out.

First Quarter

If you want to bet on anything this week, you should probably start by penciling Djokovic in for the final. This weekend he reached his 12th straight title match, in Beijing; the last time he lost before the final round was in Doha in January. Shanghai, though, with its quick hard courts, isn’t quite the lock that Beijing is for the world No. 1. He has won it twice, but last year he lost in the semifinals to the fast-court-loving Federer. This time Djokovic will start against 44th-ranked Martin Klizan; the Slovakian lefty took a set from Djokovic in Miami this spring. If Djokovic wins that, he’ll play the winner of Feliciano Lopez and Dominic Thiem. Feli took a set from Djokovic at the Open last month.

Also here: Ferrer, who starts against Bernard Tomic; Gasquet, who starts against Gilles Muller

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Second Quarter

There was a time when Andy Murray seemed to own this event. He won it in 2010 and 2011, and lost a classic final to Djokovic in 2012. Murray hasn’t made it that far since, but he also hasn’t had a year as successful as this one since 2013. He’s 61-10 this season, and has lost just four matches to players not named Djokovic or Federer. If anyone has more to play for in 2015, it’s Murray, who will lead Great Britain into the Davis Cup final for the first time. He’ll start his Shanghai campaign against Steve Johnson, and could play John Isner or David Goffin after that. Isner is currently 10th in the race to London, but he’s 0-4 against Murray.

Also here: Tomas Berdych; his likely first-round opponent is Jack Sock

Semifinalist: Murray

Third Quarter

Was Rafael Nadal’s runner-up finish at a 500 event in Beijing a success or a sign of continued struggle? On the one hand, he reached the final and got a measure of revenge on his surprising new nemesis, Fabio Fognini. On the other hand, he lost in ultra-routine fashion, 6-2, 6-2, to his former rival Djokovic in the final—the most troubling aspect may be that Nadal didn’t even play that badly, and still came away with just four games. We’ll find out more about Rafa's form this week. One thing you can say about his draw, it doesn’t look like fun: Nadal starts against Ivo Karlovic, and could play Milos Raonic after that.

Also here: Stan Wawrinka. Fresh from a title in Tokyo, he’ll start against either Pablo Cuevas or Viktor Troicki. We’ll see what he has left as the week progresses. Wawrinka, despite owning an Australian Open title, has never reached the final of a hard-court Masters event.

Already out: Alexandr Dolgopolov, to Borna Coric in a third-set tiebreaker

Semifinalist: Wawrinka

Fourth Quarter

If Federer is ever going to have a dip in motivation, you’d think it might be this week. The Slams are over, the No. 1 ranking is gone, and he's not looking forward to a Davis Cup final, as he was last year. But there are his fans, who are just as rabid and vocal in Shanghai as anywhere else; there’s the surface, which is to his liking; and there are his memories of the place. Federer is the defending champion, and he won the World Tour Finals twice when it was held here, in 2006 and 2007. He also saved five match points to beat Leonardo Mayer in the first-round in Shanghai last year; what are the chances he has to save any against Albert Ramos-Viñolos this time around? If he wins that, Federer is slated to play Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Second-round match to watch: No. 6 seed Kei Nishikori vs. Nick Kyrgios. They’ve never played.

Semifinalist: Federer

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Murray; Federer d. Wawrinka

Final: Federer d. Djokovic