This week, Peter Bodo and Steve Tignor will offer their thoughts on some themes for the 2013 season, which begins next week.
One outstanding feature of the ATP tour in 2012 can be considered a mixed blessing: There were no great surprises when it came to the Grand Slam finals, or even the champions.
The year started with Novak Djokovic fending off Rafael Nadal for the Australian Open title, thereby continuing to improve on his unexpectedly brilliant record against Rafa in 2011. But then Nadal earned some payback at the French Open—hardly a surprise, considering his history there. And could anyone have been surprised by a Roger Federer win at Wimbledon, where he’s been nearly as dominant over his career as Nadal has been at Roland Garros?
The closest thing we had to a surprise men’s Grand Slam champion last year was Andy Murray’s breakthrough win against Djokovic at the U.S. Open. But is it really shocking that the four-time finalist finally punched through on his favorite court at his favorite major, under the guidance of a new coach who happened to be one of the greatest U.S. Open performers in tennis history?
The lockdown established by the Big Four is particularly noteworthy because of how prolific three of them have been for so long, which has kept any number of contenders ranked below them from making a breakthrough. The situation is different in the WTA, but not by all that much. The popular theory that the absence of a business-as-usual, Steffi Graf- or Martina Navratilova-grade dominant players leaves the majors up for grabs is not very convincing—not with Serena Williams in the house.
Still, very few people would have predicted a Maria Sharapova vs. Sara Errani final at the French Open, and that was really the only shocker of the women’s Grand Slam season. The only other even mild surprise at the major finals was Agnieszka Radwanska dinking her way to a spot opposite Serena in the Wimbledon closer.
Put it this way: the WTA “Big Three” does a pretty good job shutting out the pretenders.
All of which raises the question: What are the chances that we’ll see a surprise champion at one or more of the majors this year? Let’s consider the 2013 majors from a men’s and women’s perspective, even though a lot may change as the weeks and months of the new year roll by.
Australian Open (Defending champions: Novak Djokovic and Victoria Azarenka)