Each day during the Australian Open, we'll select three of the most intriguing matches on the schedule and offer our predictions.
Bernard Tomic vs. Fernando Verdasco [22] (Rod Laver Arena, second match)
Potentially, this could be one of the most exciting matches of the opening day. Verdasco, who beat Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga before bowing to Rafael Nadal in a five-hour, 15-minute marathon in the 2009 Australian Open semis, enters this match fresh off reaching the Auckland semifinals. The Spanish left-hander failed to surpass the fourth round in any major last year and will be eager to get off to a fast start to try and take the fans out of the match.
Tomic played through qualifying en route to the Wimbledon quarterfinals last year, and the 38th-ranked Aussie isn’t exactly suffering a confidence crisis. “The last six months [Verdasco] hasn't really done much,” said Tomic yesterday. “I think it's a good time to play him.”
A key pattern in this match should be Verdasco’s lefty, heavy topspin forehand to Tomic’s two-handed backhand. If the 6’5” Tomic, who hits a flatter ball, can consistently strike his favored backhand down the line and serve as solidly as he did en route to the Brisbane semis, I think he can open the court effectively and pull off the upset.
The Pick: Tomic in 5.
Lucie Safarova [24] vs. Christina McHale (Court 19, third match)
If the left-handed Czech, who reached the quarterfinals of Sydney last week, is landing her penetrating forehand, she could overpower the 42nd-ranked McHale. Safarova’s best Grand Slam result was a quarterfinal appearance Down Under in 2009, and she played some of her best tennis at the end of 2011, reaching successive semis in Linz and Moscow before winning the Fed Cup.
The pride of Teaneck, N.J., McHale has yet to win a match in two prior Melbourne appearances and will square off against Safarova for the first time. Still, I’m backing McHale. She has an underrated first serve, and if she can stretch Safarova with her forehand and use her superior speed to create some running rallies, I think the American, who upset Marion Bartoli at the U.S. Open last summer, can surprise.
The Pick: McHale in 3.
Jarkko Nieminen vs. David Nalbandian (Margaret Court Arena, night match)
A clash of 30-year-old veterans who are adept at working the angles and have enjoyed past Australian Open success. Nalbandian was a semifinalist in 2006; Nieminen contested the 2008 quarterfinals and was a doubles semifinalist two years ago.
The 49th-ranked Finn is the in-form player, playing through qualifying to collect his second career title in Sydney. Plagued by hip problems, Nalbandian has not surpassed the third round of a Grand Slam in his last 11 major appearances.
Given the fact he hasn’t played an ATP singles match since October, it’s tough to know if the 87th-ranked Argentine will be match fit. If this match goes the distance, the well-conditioned Nieminen may well have the edge. But I’ll gamble on Nalbandian—when he’s healthy, he can take the ball earlier, is more dangerous on the return, and is more assertive and creative offensively.
The Pick: Nalbandian in 4.