Each day during the Australian Open, we'll select three of the most intriguing matches on the schedule and offer our predictions.
Li Na [5] vs. Kim Clijsters [11] (Margaret Court Arena, third match)
Head-to-Head: Clijsters leads 5-2
The highly-anticipated rematch of the 2011 final should be the blockbuster match of the day. The woman with the rose tattoo bloomed as a major champion at Roland Garros last season, six months after she squandered a one-set, 3-2 lead in Melbourne to Clijsters.
Seeking to settle the score, the fifth-seeded Chinese enters this match in fine form, with a 7-1 record this season and a 24-4 mark in her last 28 matches on Australian soil. Clijsters leads the head-to-head 5-2, but they’ve split their last four meetings—all contested on hard courts—with three of those four encounters going the distance. Aiming to become the eighth woman to successfully defend the Australian Open title, Clijsters, who is playing just her fourth tournament since the French Open, was erratic in her first set of the tournament. But tennis’ top working mom has picked up her play considerably with successive wins over Stephanie Foretz Gacon and Daniela Hantuchova.
On occasion, Clijsters has come up surprisingly flat in recent majors (see her 6-0, 6-1 loss to Nadia Petrova at the 2010 Australian Open, or her French Open setback to Arantxa Rus last spring) and cannot afford any such lapse against Li, whose game, personality, and even sparring sessions with her husband and coach Jiang Shan can be highly entertaining. Stylistically, both are power-based baseliners who are extremely explosive on the run. This could come down to who has the better serving day and who takes the first successful strike in rallies. Clijsters, whose serve can go askew at times, has won 79 percent of her first-serve points through three rounds and played with controlled aggression. Based on ranking and recent results, Li is the favorite. But this could be Clijsters’ Australian Open farewell and I don’t think she’s ready to say good-bye yet. In a rematch that should provide sensational running rallies, I like Clijsters to stay one step ahead and squeeze out the win.
The Pick: Clijsters in 3.
Roger Federer [3] vs. Bernard Tomic (Rod Laver Arena, first night match)
Head-to-Head: Federer leads 1-0
Improvisational skills will be showcased when the Swiss Maestro meets the Aussie funk master in a match that could captivate a nation celebrating Tomic’s emergence and Lleyton Hewitt’s resurgence.
The four-time champion could be tested by Tomic’s slick sleight of hand and quirky shot selection in following off-pace floaters with flat shots that sting with slap-to-the face surprise. Remember the days when Federer disorientated opponents by drawing them to net in pursuit of his dipping short slice, only to displace them with precise forehand passes? Tomic, who calls Federer his favorite player, has employed similar tactics. His shrewd court sense, instinct for abruptly altering the pace during rallies, and competitive composure are all impressive for a 19-year-old kid who started this tournament with a career total of nine wins in Grand Slam play. I picked Tomic to beat Fernando Verdasco and Alexandr Dolgopolov in five sets, and he delivered in both matches. There are compelling reasons to believe he can think (and play) outside the box to extend this thrill ride at the major where stranger results have happened (see Thomas Johansson’s 2002 title run and Rainer Schuettler and Arnaud Clement reaching finals).
Not convinced? Consider that then-59th-ranked Tomic took Federer to four sets in their lone prior meeting in the Davis Cup playoffs four months ago (on grass) and says he now knows what to expect from the Grand Slam king. "Having played him before, I think I have an intense sense of what he can do and where he can hurt me, where he can't," said Tomic, who limped a bit and feigned fatigue to lure Verdasco into a false sense of security in the third set of the opener. Fatigue may be a real factor this time: Tomic has played two physical five-setters already, and though he's 11 years younger, Federer is physically stronger and shows no signs of the strain that forced him out of Doha earlier this month.
Federer’s experience winning high-profile major matches, all-court acumen, and the fact that he’s played high-quality tennis in posting a 23-1 record since failing to finish off Novak Djokovic in the U.S. Open semis are all factors in his favor. Ultimately, I believe Federer’s superior athleticism and movement and his feel for diversifying the spin, speed, and trajectory of his shots in crucial spots will be keys to combating Tomic’s creative point-construction skills. It’s been a joy watching Tomic work his mischievous, Mecir-like magic while dancing the fifth-set tight rope, but the 2010 champion has reached 30 consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinals, and I think that streak continues.
The Pick: Federer in 4.
Caroline Wozniacki [1] vs. Jelena Jankovic [13] (Rod Laver Arena, second night match)
Head-to-Head: Jankovic leads 4-3
The blue court resembles a crossroads tonight, as Wozniacki tries to cling to the top spot while former No. 1 Jankovic is playing for her first Australian Open quarterfinal since 2008. The 26-year-old Jankovic holds a 4-3 edge in their career meetings, but Wozniacki has won the last three times they’ve played.
Some skeptics take perverse pleasure in labeling the pair “pushers,” but I view both as defensive counter-punchers who cover the court comprehensively and share the down-the-line backhand as their kill shot. They are two of the fastest woman in the sport, both capable of remarkable retrievals, but both also prefer to use their speed in defensive, rather than offensive, pursuits.
This is an interesting match-up (which would be even more intriguing in the unlikely event they opened it up offensively) because both women are more dangerous off the backhand side, and both try to set up backhand exchanges to end points. Wozniacki is not nearly as comfortable hitting her forehand down the line, which should benefit Jankovic in that when they go forehand to forehand—the speedy Serbian can sit on Wozniacki’s crosscourt shot and may be more likely to pull the trigger on her own forehand down the line. The player who defends her second serve better and can take charge in forehand rallies will have the edge.
When considering all of the elements at work in this match-up, remember how well Jankovic played in a 6-2, 6-4 win over Wozniacki in the Indian Wells final two years ago. If she can summon that level in what should be heavier Melbourne conditions, Jankovic can pull off the upset here. Jankovic says a Top 10 return is her goal, and a win would show the world she's serious about achieving it.
Wozniacki must win this match to have a shot at retaining the No. 1 ranking. I see this as a true toss-up and will not be surprised if Jankovic prevails. But I’m picking Wozniacki because she’s played more high-pressure matches in recent years and I think she’s slightly stronger—Wozniacki is 67-32 lifetime in three-setters, while Jankovic is 117-115 in three-setters—qualities which will come into play if there are long, physical rallies, and it goes the distance.
The Pick: Wozniacki in 3.