Three to See, Aussie Open Day 2: Gauff vs. Kenin, Sinner vs. Jarry, Osaka vs. Garcia

Coco Gauff vs Sofia Kenin

These two Americans don’t play often—just three times in their five years on tour together—but when they do, it tends to mean something.

Their first meeting came in the fourth round at the 2020 Australian Open. Gauff was the young media darling, and had just upset Naomi Osaka. But the relatively unheralded Kenin beat her in three sets, and went on to shock everyone by winning the tournament.

Their third meeting came at Wimbledon last summer. This time Gauff was the higher seed, and Kenin was trying to kick start a comeback. But Kenin again won in three sets. Gauff took the defeat so hard that she went into career-reassessment mode, hired Brad Gilbert as her coach, and won the US Open two months later.

On Monday in Australia, they’ll be first up in Rod Laver Arena, and the gap between them will, on paper, be wider than ever. Gauff is ranked third, while Kenin is 81st. More important, Coco is at her peak, form-wise. She finished 2024 by winning the WTA Finals, and has started 2025 by winning her first five matches in straight sets, including a well-earned victory over her nemesis, ILA Swiatek. Kenin’s most recent result, meanwhile, was a 6-3, 6-1 loss to 18-year-old, 118th-ranked Maya Joint of Australia.

Will that gap be enough to get Gauff her first win over Kenin at a Slam? Both women are counter-punchers by nature, but Kenin surprised Gauff when she took the initiative in rallies at Wimbledon last year. With her excellent drop shot and all-around court sense, Kenin can be a disruptive force, and this is clearly a matchup she liks.

Still, Gauff has the bigger weapons, and she’s deploying them as well as she ever has. She’s already changed her career around once after losing to Kenin in the first round at a Slam. She’s not going to want to have to do it again. Winner: Gauff

Jannik Sinner vs. Nicolás Jarry

Getting back to competition will likely be a relief for Sinner, who hasn’t played a match since Davis Cup last November. Filling that void has been a lot of unwanted chatter about his failed doping test and (lack of) suspension from 2024. Now the world No. 1 can block all of that out for a few hours, as he gets his title defense underway.

As excited as Sinner will be to play, he may not relish this matchup in particular. He’ll be second up in Laver, against one of the highest-ranked players he could have faced in the first round. Jarry is No. 34 in the world; two spots higher and he would have been seeded. The 29-year-old Chilean was also ranked 16th as recently as last May, has three titles to his name, and made the quarterfinals at his first event of 2025, in Brisbane.

Sinner and Jarry are 1-1 against each other. Jarry’s win came on grass back in 2019, when Sinner was 17. The Italian’s came a few months ago on hard courts in Beijing, but Jarry won the first set.

At 6-foot-7, with a strong serve and a heavy, attacking forehand, Jarry can give any opponent trouble. But whatever his weakness is, it shows up most clearly in best-of-five at the majors. He’s 10-19 at the Slams for his career, and he lost in the first round at all four of them in 2024.

Sinner will need to take his chances to break, whenever they come. But with his own, constantly improving serve and return, and superior ground strokes, he’s equipped to do it. At the last Slam, in New York, he also showed that he’s equipped to block out whatever noise is buzzing around him. Winner: Sinner

Naomi Osaka vs. Caroline Garcia

The draw gods can’t get enough of these two. Osaka and Garcia played three times in the course of three months last year, including a first-rounder at last year’s Australian Open. Garcia won that one, as well as one in Miami, while Osaka prevailed in Doha.

That doesn’t tell us a whole lot abut who will win this time around. Neither do the scores—all three matches were close two-setters—or their current rankings: Osaka is No. 50, Garcia No. 58.

At 31, Garcia is still an excellent athlete and ball-striker, while Osaka can still put as much pace on the ball as anyone this side of Sabalenka. Both are also prone to extreme streakiness and shock defeats.

For Osaka, her results with new coach Patrick Mouratoglou last week in Auckland are reason to hope, and to fear. She made the final, looked sharp doing it, and won the first set over Clara Tauson. Then she immediately retired with an abdominal issue. I’ll say she’ll be ready to go for this one. Winner: Osaka