Three to See, Australian Open Day 4: Medvedev vs. Kyrgios; Fritz vs. Tiafoe; Pavlyuchenkova vs. Stosur

INTERVIEW: Daniil Medvedev after his first-round win at the Australian Open.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Nick Kyrgios

Kyrgios has taken on the role of indirect giant killer at the Australian Open over the last few years. In 2020, he lost to Rafael Nadal in four sets in the fourth round, before Nadal lost his next match to Dominic Thiem. In 2021, it was Thiem’s turn to get the Kyrgios treatment; the Austrian beat the Australian in five sets, only to come out completely flat and lose in straights to Grigor Dimitrov two days later.

Holding off Kyrgios in front of his home fans is obviously a draining experience. Judging by their head-to-head record, Medvedev would seem to be especially vulnerable to it; he’s 0-2 against Kyrgios. But both of those matches were played in 2019, just before Medvedev began his climb into the Top 5. Today he’s No. 2 in the world—113 spots ahead of Kyrgios—for a number of reasons, one of which is his return. Kyrgios is ranked fifth in serving on tour right now, but Medvedev is fourth in returning. Servers can make thing interesting—and draining—but returners win titles these days. Winner: Medvedev

Taylor Fritz vs. Frances Tiafoe

Fritz and Tiafoe were two of the many Americans who made moderate waves in 2021. The Californian rose to a career-high No. 22, while the Marylander starts 2022 at No. 34, five spots off his own career best. The question for this one may be: Which is a better barometer—rankings and head-to-head record, or big-match skills? Fritz has the higher ranking, leads their head to head 2-1 and, with his strong late-season showings at Masters events in Paris and Indian Wells, seemed to have elevated himself to a new level last year. But Tiafoe is the player who has made the quarterfinals here, and who made himself one of the stars of the US Open last summer. He likes these stages, and thrives in best-of-five. I’ll bet on that. Winner: Tiafoe

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Sam Stosur

Once upon a time, all eyes in Australia would have been on Stosur at this time of year. For three or four seasons at the start of the last decade, she was among the favorites to win the title, but she never handled that pressure well, and never made it past the fourth round in Melbourne; it was the US Open where she won her Slam. All eyes will be on the 37-year-old again on Wednesday, as she plays what could be her final singles match.

Beyond that, this might also be an interesting contest on its own merits. Stosur is ranked 477 spots below the No. 10 Pavlyuchenkova, but the Aussie leads 5-4 in their head to head. Whether it’s a win for Stosur, or a home-country send-off to a popular player, this one should be worth a look. Winner: Pavlyuchenkova