Three to See, Day 1: Collins vs. Pegula, Shelton and Townsend are Sunday must-sees in Paris

WATCH: Taylor Townsend qualified for Roland Garros with three wins, including a come-from-behind effort against Kaja Juvan in the second round.

Jessica Pegula vs. Danielle Collins

There are major similarities and differences between Pegula and Collins at this stage of their careers. They’re both American, they’re both 29, and they’ve both been late bloomers. Pegula reached the first of her five Grand Slam quarterfinals in 2021; Collins reached her first Grand Slam final, in Australia, in 2022. Both also honed their games on Florida hard courts, and neither is what you would call a natural clay-courter. But each has managed to make a quarterfinal in Paris—Collins in 2020, and Pegula last year.

It’s the differences between the two women that could, well, make the difference in this match. Pegula leads their head to head 4-0 (2-0 at the WTA level, 2-0 in earlier, smaller events). That includes a straight-set win on hard courts in Miami earlier this year. And as far as their current form goes, Pegula is 25-9 in 2023, while Collins is 9-10, and 0-1 on clay. Winner: Pegula

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego

Credit young Ben Shelton for taking the clay-court plunge in his rookie season. The spring swing through Europe has sucked the momentum out of many an American’s season, and it may have done the same to the 20-year-old Georgia native’s. He entered six clay tournaments at the ATP level—plus one Challenger—and won two matches. Hopefully he’ll be a better player for it in the long run.

His run will end in Paris, where he’ll face—what else?—a clay-loving European in Sonego. Going strictly by the numbers, you might favor Shelton: Thanks to his quarterfinal finish at the Australian Open, he’s ranked No. 35 to Sonego’s 45, and he won their only meeting, last summer on hard courts in Cincinnati, 7-5 in the third set. But the 28-year-old Sonego is still the favorite on this surface.

However it ends up, Shelton’s serve and Sonego’s forehand should light up little Court 13. Winner: Sonego

Taylor Townsend vs. Anastasia Potapova

Both of these players were junior stars, reaching No. 1 in the world: Townsend in 2012, Potapova in 2016. As pros, neither has come close to that ranking, but both have shown signs of improvement this season. Potapova won a title in Linz and has reached a career-high pro ranking of No. 24. Townsend beat her country’s No. 1 player, Jessica Pegula, in Rome, and followed that up by reaching a final at a 125K event the following week in Florence.

Potapova won the only meeting between the two, in the Adelaide qualies last year. She has the bigger and better conventional baseline game; she can trade topspin forehand with anyone. But Townsend’s creativity and variety—she’s as adept at the net as she is with a drop shot—makes her the better clay-courter. Neither is immune to nerves: Potapova is easily agitated, and Townsend has been known to give a way a lead or two. Which means, no matter what the score is at any given moment, this one won’t be over until it’s over. Winner: Potapova