Three to See, Day 1: The Serena Show begins and Nick Kyrgios opens against his doubles partner

WATCH: Carreño Busta, a two-time US Open semifinalist, wins his first ATP Masters 1000 title at the Canada Open this month.

Pablo Carreño Busta vs. Dominic Thiem

From a head-to-head standpoint, Thiem owns Carreño Busta. They’ve played six completed matches since 2015, and Thiem has won them all. Carreño Busta has taken his share of sets, but has never made it over the finish line. On a normal day, Thiem’s superior firepower from both sides gives him the edge. The more-limited Spaniard can’t match the pace or the spin that the Austrian can generate.

The question is: How normal will this day be? Thiem is still recovering from a series of injuries, and a winless stretch that lasted 426 days until he finally snapped it at the Swedish Open last month. Since then, the 2020 US Open champion has steadied himself. He made the semis in Gstaad and the quarterfinals in both Kitzbuhel and last week's Winston-Salem event. Meanwhile, Carreño Busta went from steady to spectacular in winning his first Masters 1000 title in Montreal three weeks ago at age 31. Thiem will surely catch up to PCB again, but I’m going to say it won’t be this week. Winner: Carreño Busta

Serena Williams vs. Danka Kovinic

The 27-year-old Kovinic said she was excited to see her US Open draw. She’s never faced Serena before, so this is her chance to someday tell her grandchildren that she played against The Greatest. Will she be able to tell them that she beat The Greatest, too? Neither woman has been on fire of late. Serena, currently ranked No. 608, has lost three of her four matches this year, and hasn’t shown much progress since she returned at Wimbledon. She’s coming off a 6-0 second-set loss to Emma Raducanu in Cincinnati. Yet the No. 80th-ranked Kovinic has been struggling even more mightily. Since reaching the third round at Roland Garros, she has lost four straight matches and eight straight sets.

This one will be on Serena’s racquet, and will revolve around two questions: (1) Has she been able to shake off enough rust in practice over the last few weeks to compete at a Grand Slam level? and (2) How will she react to the moment? Arthur Ashe Stadium will be full, and loud, and behind her all the way. Once upon a time, she could ride that kind of energy to a rousing victory. But on a couple of occasions more recently, trying to live up to all of that hope has left her frozen. Either reaction is possible on Monday night, and despite her slump, Kovinic is good enough to take advantage of a nervous or off-form Serena. But I’m going to bet that Serena’s desire to keep her swan song alive for as long as possible will get her through. Winner: S. Williams

Nick Kyrgios v. Thanasi Kokkinakis

Kyrgios, 27, and Kokkinakis, 26, have been playing with and against each other for most of their tennis lives. As pros, though, the Aussies have only faced off at the Challenger level, at small-event matches, in 2013 and 2014; Kyrgios won both. The setting for their first ATP-level encounter will be a little bit bigger: A night match in Ashe, following up what may be Serena’s swan song.

Kyrgios comes in as the obvious favorite for a host of reasons, aside from the two wins back in the day. He’s ranked 44 spots higher (No. 26 to Kokkinakis’s 70). He’s coming off a run to the Wimbledon final. In terms of talent and shot-making, he can play circles around his good friend. And maybe most important, he has the air of a big brother in their relationship; Kyrgios is the wild son, Kokkinakis his sensible younger sibling who apologizes and says Nick’s really a good kid underneath. For Kokkinakis to win on this stage would take a serious effort to overturn the psychological hierarchy between the two.

Kokkinakis’s best chance is probably a Kyrgios meltdown. Which, in a noisy and distracting Ashe, with a friend across the net, is always a possibility. Winner: Kyrgios