Three to See, Day 10: Djokovic vs. Rublev; Paul vs. Shelton; Sabalenka vs. Vekic

PRESS CONFERENCE: Ben Shelton at the Aussie Open

Novak Djokovic vs. Andrey Rublev

In the moments after his four-hour, fourth-round win over Holger Rune on Monday, Rublev was asked for his thoughts on his next match.

“No one wants to play Novak,” the Russian blurted out with a laugh.

It was a moment of disarming honesty, but it was also a little premature. Djokovic had yet to play his own fourth-round match, with Alex de Minaur. Yet Rublev hadn’t even considered the idea that he might lose.

Rublev’s prediction came true, in just the way he foresaw. After Djokovic’s 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 blitzkrieg over De Minaur, it’s hard to imagine anyone relishing an opportunity to face the Serb on his favorite court.

“The only chance I have is if I play my best tennis, just fight for every ball, and that’s it,” Rublev said later. “That’s the only chance.”

For all the time they’ve spent on tour together, Djokovic and Rublev don’t have a whole lot of history on court. They’ve played three times, but never on an outdoor hard court. Djokovic has won twice on indoor hard, and Rublev has won once on clay.

But Rublev is probably correct in his assessment: He’ll have to play exceptionally well just to challenge the version of Djokovic we saw in the fourth round. Djokovic said he played without any pain in his leg for the first time at this tournament, and the result was his best tennis of 2023. No one, Rublev included, wants to face that. Winner: Djokovic

Tommy Paul vs. Ben Shelton

This is a surprise quarterfinal matchup for a couple of reasons. First, Paul is ranked 35th and Shelton 89th, and neither has been this far at a major before. Second, at the start of the tournament, they weren’t even the mostly likely two American men to succeed Down Under. That honor went to the long-departed Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe.

Paul and Shelton have never played. They’ve practiced together once, and spent some locker-room time together. Shelton says Paul is “one of the American guys who has kind of almost taken me under their wing, kind of helped me navigate some of the early stages of a professional career.” As for Paul, he says he hasn’t seen Shelton much in match play, and will have to take a look some of his film on YouTube before he and his coach “get a game plan going.”

While Paul has beaten two quality opponents in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Roberto Bautista Agut, Shelton has yet to face a seed. He has pulled out two close five-setters, and has been dominant on his serve. But Paul, who is among the tour’s best athletes, will be a step up in level—and maybe a step too high. Winner: Paul

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Donna Vekic

Is there a more surprising head-to-head record in tennis? Sabalenka is ranked 59 spots higher than Vekic, and she may be the favorite to win her first Grand Slam title. But Vekic has owned her. They’ve played six times, and the Croat has five wins. She beat her in their biggest match, at the Tokyo Olympics, and their most recent match, in San Diego last fall.

“I have a great head to head with her,” Vekic says, while also emphasizing that “all of our matches have been really tough.

It’s true, four of those five wins have come in three sets. But once these two get to a decider, Vekic tends to run away with it; she has won three 6-1 third sets over Sabalenka. There must be something about Vekic’s flat forehand and strong serve that Sabalenka doesn’t like; maybe they force her to rush through her long ground strokes.

All of which means this will be the biggest test yet of Sabalenka’s recent renaissance. As well as Vekic has played to make her first quarterfinal Down Under, Sabalenka has been better. Winner: Sabalenka