Three to See, Day 7: Paul vs. Shelton; Gauff vs. Wozniacki; Swiatek vs. Ostapenko

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Tommy Paul vs. Ben Shelton

“I’m ready for a war,” Shelton said when he was asked about facing his countryman and sometime doubles partner.

These two went to war once before, at this year’s Australian Open. Paul survived that quarterfinal shooting match in four close sets, but Shelton—and his all-world serve—acquitted himself exceptionally well in his first trip Down Under. Since then, the 14th-ranked Paul has had the better season than his 47th-ranked countryman, especially during the summer hard-court swing. In Toronto, Paul beat Carlos Alcaraz, and in Cincinnati he nearly did it again. Shelton came to the Open with a 12-20 record on the season.

While the match will be between friends, the pressure will be high as they walk into Ashe Stadium at noon. Their quarter of the draw has already lost its top two seeds, Holger Rune and Casper Ruud, and the winner here would stand a decent chance of reaching the semifinals.

Paul, 26, is the favorite over his 20-year-old opponent: He’s more experienced, he has a more complete game, and he seems to have built up to this moment in his career. But Shelton has one unassailable advantage: His live left arm, and the serve that comes with it. He hit 26 aces in 17 service games in his last match. If he can do that again, this one could could be close. Winner: Paul

Coco Gauff vs. Caroline Wozniacki

Gauff has never played Wozniacki, but she seems to be well versed in what she does well.

“I don’t think she’s going to give me anything,” Gauff said. “She got a lot of balls back, so I’m expecting long rallies.”

But Gauff has also been paying close attention to any changes Wozniacki has made during her comeback.

“I’ve watched her last couple matches this week. I think she’s playing a little bit more aggressive, I guess, compared to when she was starting.”

At 33, after three years away, Wozniacki will probably need to be a little more aggressive than she was in her first career, and rely a little less on her retrieval skills. But in this match, second on during the day session in Ashe, she’ll likely still do most of the defending. Up until now, Gauff hasn’t been an all-out attacker; she also wins with her speed. But this summer she has upped the pace on all of her shots, most prominently her serve and backhand, and has committed to using them more proactively.

It should be simple: Can Gauff force errors from Wozniacki with her offensive shots, or will she commit unforced errors of her own with them? The crowd has helped her through a couple of three-setters so far; they may need to do it again on Sunday. Winner: Gauff

Iga Swiatek vs. Jelena Ostapenko

Is Ostapenko prepared to return to prime time, and a big stage? The 2017 Roland Garros champion plays most of her matches on smaller courts these days, but that’s not how it works when you go up against the No. 1 seed. These two will face off in Ashe, second on at night.

Judging by their head-to-head record, Ostapenko should be ready for Swiatek. They’ve played three times, and the Latvian has won all three. She’s the only WTA player with a perfect record against the Pole. All three matches were played before Iga became No. 1, but one of them, in Dubai, happened in early 2022. Ostapenko won it 7-6 in the third set, on her way to the title that week.

Why has she had success against Swiatek? Ostapenko knows only one way to play—go for everything, as soon as you can. Her power, and the abandon with which she uses it, must bother Swiatek, or keep her from using her own power in return.

After some peaks and valleys in her career, Ostapenko has leveled off around No. 20 in the world. Does she have more in her? This match will give us an idea. She should make it interesting, and her blazing winners will wow the Ashe night crowd. But No. 20 isn’t No. 1. Winner: Swiatek