(8) Angelique Kerber vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova
Head-to-head: Kerber leads 2-1
Kerber dug in on critical points to outduel Kuznetsova in Madrid last month, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5. The rematch could escalate into another three-set escapade.
If you accept the premise that major matches between accomplished veterans often come down to a handful of critical points, then you must favor Kerber. The sturdy German usually plays pivotal points with more clarity than the sometime combustible Kuznetsova, who can be her own worst enemy. Watch Kerber closely and see how she'll change a pattern on a key point, she did in the third set of her third-round win vs. Varvara Lepchenko, hooking a sharp-angled forehand cross-court winner. Counter-puncher Kerber has a knack for the correct situational shot; all-courter Kuznetsova can light up the court with winners, yet can look so burdened by pressure she sometimes resorts to the drop shot to bail out.
Kuznetsova's game is more expansive and better suited for clay—Sveta has all the shots though sometimes isn't quite sure how to put them together—but I believe Kerber competes with more vigor and is more consistent. Kerber is playing for her fourth quarterfinal in her last seven Grand Slam tournaments; 2009 French Open champion Kuznetsova, the only unseeded woman still standing in the top half of the draw, is 11-2 in three-setters this year and 40-9 lifetime at Roland Garros. If she minimizes the cranky implosions, invests total commitment to every point and applies her all-court skills, I see Kuznetsova reaching her sixth Roland Garros quarterfinal.
The Pick: Kuznetsova in three sets