Carlos Alcaraz defeats Daniil Medvedev to defend his Indian Wells title, Iga Swiatek beats Maria Sakkari for women's title

This one could get spicy. The 35-year-old Fognini generally isn’t a fan of facing whippersnappers, and the 20-year-old Shelton, who made his big-screen debut just a couple of months ago at the Australian Open, certainly qualifies as one of those. The Floridian is also not afraid to punctuate a winning point with a raised fist and a loud “Come on!” Neither of those things are likely to win him any extra love from Fognini.

They’ve never played before, so it’s hard to say how their games will match up. Shelton is still learning to harness his blazing serve and forehand, while Fognini is trying to make his quickness and hands, both gradually declining, work for him for at least one more season. But neither guy has been lighting up the courts of late: Shelton is 0-2 since Melbourne; Fognini is 1-5 in 2023, with four first-round losses, and ranked just 88th. I’ll go with rankings over experience today. Winner: Shelton

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Andy Murray vs. Tomás Martin Etcheverry

Murray is one of the best-known players at Indian Wells; Etcheverry, a 23-year-old Argentine ranked 61st, one of the least-known. But they do have one thing in coming: Each is coming off a runner-up appearance in his last event. Murray’s happened in Doha, where he worked several miracles before losing to Daniil Medvedev in the final. Etcheverry’s happened at the Chile Open, where he upset No. 3 seed Sebastian Baez before narrowly losing to Nicolas Jarry in the title match.

Murray is a hard-courter, but he has never loved the conditions in Indian Wells. He has reached just one final there, in 2009. But he should still have an edge on the clay-loving Etcheverry. Murray has made a specialty of the epic comeback win in 2023. Which makes me wonder: Will that lead to more confidence, and more comfortable victories? Or will he have to walk the tightrope week after week? Only one of those is a recipe for long-term success. Winner: Murray

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The BNP Paribas Open is the only hard-court Masters 1000 to elude Andy Murray, who made the final just once in 2009.

Sloane Stephens vs. Sofia Kenin

Stephens and Kenin are former Grand Slam champions who have fallen on harder times. Stephens is ranked 48th and Kenin 170th at the moment. So far their seasons have been occasionally promising, and occasionally disastrous. Kenin began with a semifinal run in Hobart, but is 1-4 since. Stephens started the year 0-3, but has reached the round of 16 at her last two tournaments.

Each woman has had her moment to forget: Sloane lost to Camila Giorgi 6-0, 6-0 in Merida; Kenin lost to Marie Bouzkova 6-1, 6-1 in Dubai. As far as their head to head goes, Stephens won her lone meeting with Kenin, last summer in Toronto, 7-5 in the third set. Like that match, this one could go either way, and could go the distance. But Sloane has been a little more dependable recently. Winner: Stephens

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