Three To See, Madrid Day 6: Alcaraz vs. Dimitrov; Pegula vs. Bouzkova; Rune vs. Davidovich Fokina

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Alcaraz got off to a surprisingly slow and nervy start against Emil Ruusuvuori in his first match. Was that a bad sign for his title defense, or a one-off due to opening-round, home-court jitters? Chances are good that it’s the latter. When Alcaraz needed his game, it was there, and once he shook off those early nerves, he was as commanding as expected in the third set. Chances would also seem to be good that he won’t be as tight in his next round. Alcaraz won his only previous meeting with Dimitrov, last fall in Paris, 6-1, 6-3. In his last three tournaments, the Bulgarian has won one match, and lost the second. He’s already won one in Madrid, and now he plays Alcaraz, so I think we can see where this is heading. Winner: Alcaraz

Jessica Pegula vs. Marie Bouzkova

You might think Pegula would be the heavy favorite in this day match in Santana. She made the final in Madrid last year, and she’s ranked 21 spots higher than Bouzkova. The Czech has also had something of a disappointing season so far, winning just nine of 20 matches. But there’s one good reason to give Bouzkova a chance: She’s 3-1 against Pegula, and the last time they played, in Indian Wells in 2022, she won a 6-0 third set. Bouzkova is better than her ranking and her 2023 record, and she gives everything when she plays. But Pegula likes Madrid’s faster clay, and she looked to be hitting herself into form on it over the course of her first-round win. Winner: Pegula

Holger Rune vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

It will be a Spanish-centric night session in Santana on Sunday: First up is Alcaraz, followed by his countryman Davidovich Fokina. The latter’s showdown with Rune may start late, but hopefully people will stick around, because it should be a high-energy, in-your-face affair—that’s kind of par for the course with Rune. He and Davidovich Fokina will both bring springy legs, an attacking mindset, and explosive ground strokes to their first meeting. Davidovich Fokina will have the crowd, but that may fire up the combative Rune even more. Winner: Rune