Each day during the U.S. Open, Richard Pagliaro will preview three must-see matches—and offer his predictions.
Arthur Ashe Stadium: Mardy Fish (23) vs. Nikolay Davydenko
Head-to-head: Tied 2-2
There was a time when Davydenko represented a dead end in the draw for opponents. The Russian reached back-to-back U.S. Open semifinals five years ago and defeated Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal back-to-back to win Miami in 2008. But times have changed, and the 31-year-old Russian is just 4-11 vs. Top 25 opponents this season.
Davydenko’s serve was in disarray in Cincinnati, as he could not find the box in retiring after Novak Djokovic dished out a first-set bagel. The former world No. 3 bounced back in the first round of the Open, and though he’s not quite as quick around the court as he once was, he remains dangerous because he has impeccable timing and can hit flat, penetrating strokes.
Fish serves bigger than Davydenko, has more offensive options, as he can close at net (he won 11 of 15 trips to net in the first round) and he should be able to make inroads attacking the second serve.
The Pick: Fish in four sets.
Louis Armstrong Stadium: Marcel Granollers (24) vs. James Blake
Head-to-head: Granollers leads 1-0
Defense is typically not a big part of Blake’s game plan, so it will be interesting to see how the American approaches lengthy exchanges against the ultra-consistent Granollers. If past performance is any indication, Blake may well try to blast his way through points in an effort to reduce protracted rallies and prevent Granollers from establishing a rhythm.
Granollers is a skilled counter-puncher most comfortable playing several feet behind the baseline, where he has time to set up for his shots. The Spaniard has been tough to beat in five-setters. The 32-year-old Blake won’t outlast Granollers; he will need to out-hit him to win.
On Wednesday, a trio of 30-something players—Tommy Haas, Mikhail Youzhny, and Jurgen Melzer—all fell in five sets, and if this one goes the distance, you have to favor Granollers. Blake takes the ball earlier, hits a much flatter ball, has been the more explosive hard-court competitor, and should be eager knowing this could be his farewell to his home major—for those reasons, we’ll take Blake.
The Pick: Blake in four sets.
Grandstand: Nicolas Almagro (11) vs. Phillip Petzschner
Head-to-head: First Meeting
Two players with smooth service motions square off for the first time. Petzschner edged Nicolas Mahut, 7-6 (3) in the fifth set of the opening round. The German can play all-court tennis and is a threat on faster surfaces—he won the 2011 U.S. Open doubles title with Melzer a year after the pair won Wimbledon together—and though fatigue may well be a factor after his first-round marathon, he could also feel liberated and swing freely against the higher seed.
The 28-year-old Petzschner will probably have to red-line his game to really threaten, but he did just that in stringing together seven wins to reach the s-Hertogenbosch final in June. Almagro has a significant edge on the backhand side—he can hammer his one-hander cross-court or rip it up the line—and should have the advantage in longer rallies as well. The 12th-ranked Spaniard has reached the third round of the Open in four of the last five years, and if he remains calm and plays with patience he should move on.
The Pick: Almagro in four sets.