Each day during the U.S. Open, Richard Pagliaro will preview three must-see matches—and offer his predictions.
Louis Armstrong Stadium: Tomas Berdych (6) vs. David Goffin
Head-to-head: First meeting
This could be a fascinating first-rounder between a power player and a creative baseliner. Goffin showed his class and court sense at the French Open in becoming the first lucky loser to reach the fourth round of a major since fellow Belgian Dick Norman did it at Wimbledon in 1995. The 21-year-old, who then took a set off Roger Federer in Paris, calls hard courts his favorite surface and is fresh off a quarterfinal run in Winston-Salem.
Goffin will try to work the angles and make the 6'5" Berdych bend for balls out of his strike zone. Berdych was a blown backhand volley away from winning Winston-Salem and could be suffering an emotional hangover from letting that title slip from his grip. The flat-hitting Czech has been vulnerable to major upsets recently: He lost to Ernests Gulbis in the opening round of Wimbledon in June and has failed to survive the U.S. Open first round in two of the last four years. Goffin is a true talent who can play off pace effectively. But Berdych has the bigger weapons. If he gets off to a good start—and doesn’t choke—he should get through.
The Pick: Berdych in four sets.
Court 11: Julien Benneteau (31) vs. Olivier Rochus
Head-to-head: Rochus leads 1-0
Benneteau nearly knocked Federer out at Wimbledon, and has the biting serve and penetrating backhand to take charge in this match of 30-something veterans facing off for the first time in nearly seven years. If he’s on his game, he 35th-ranked Frenchman can take the offensive more decisively, but don’t look for an “I Love New York” sticker on his racquet bag: Benneteau has lost in the first round in five of his eight Flushing Meadows appearances.
Also, don’t let the crafty Rochus’ age (31), height (listed at 5'6") and ranking (No. 105) fool you: He is a clean ball striker who can take the ball early, puts a lot of returns in play, crack his one-handed backhand up the line, and gets up for matches like these.
Since contesting the Memphis quarterfinals, Rochus has slumped to a 2-14 mark in ATP-level main-draw matches. On the surface, this may sound like a reach of a pick, particularly when you consider the Belgian has eight Open first-round exits on his resume, but I'll ride with Rochus in an upset.
The Pick: Rochus in five sets.
Court 17: Nicolas Almagro (11) vs. Radek Stepanek
Head-to-head: Stepanek leads 2-0.
“The Worm” has made Almagro squirm in their prior meetings, using his court craft and soft hands around net to exploit the Spaniard’s deep court positioning. At 33, Stepanek is not quite as spry as he was when he cracked the Top 10 six years ago, but he still has a sneaky-fast serve, bold two-handed backhand, and he knows how to get under opponents’ skin.
Almagro, who can be a bit of a hot head when things go awry, cannot let his emotions run wild in this match. He must expect Stepanek, who swept 2009 U.S. Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in straight sets in Toronto earlier this month, to pull out all the stops and play a complete match.
This is the type of match Stepanek relishes, and I can’t argue with you if you favor him; Almagro is at his best on clay and slower surfaces. But ultimately, Almagro hits a bigger ball, has a massive serve for his height, and he's suffered two opening-round exits in New York, I like his ball striking skills enough to go with him.
The Pick: Almagro in five sets.