Each day during the U.S. Open, Richard Pagliaro will preview three must-see matches—and offer his predictions.
Arthur Ashe Stadium: Andy Roddick (20) vs. Fabio Fognini
Head-to-head: Roddick leads 1-0
Impending retirement seemed to liberate Roddick, who played with conviction and aggression in surrendering just seven games in a straight-sets thrashing of an increasingly disinterested Bernard Tomic.
The theatrical Fognini pushed Roddick to 7-5 in the third set on grass in Eastbourne. When the 59th-ranked Italian is inspired, he can be dangerous. He takes the ball early, is balanced off the forehand and backhand, has soft hands, and has exceeded his U.S. Open career victory total in this tournament alone by reaching the third round.
Roddick is the bigger, stronger athlete whose serve will be the biggest shot on court. He received tremendous crowd support for his second-round win and should be pumped to continue his farewell tour.
The Pick: Roddick in four sets.
Louis Armstrong Stadium: John Isner (9) vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber (19)
Head-to-head: Isner leads 3-0
They played weeks ago in Toronto, with Isner squeezing out a 6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-4 victory. Kohlschreiber can be a tough out in Grand Slams: He defeated Roddick at the Australian Open years back, took out Juan Monaco in Melbourne this year, and knocked compatriot Tommy Haas out of the first round of Wimbledon in June.
Though he’s just 5’10”, the German has a sneaky-fast serve, and his one-handed backhand is a beautiful kill shot. Kohlschreiber showed his grit in fighting back for a five-set win over Benoit Paire in the second round and has a .706 winning percentage in five-set matches. He can test Isner, but if the 6’9” American is hitting his spots on serve, he should be in control. Kohlschreiber plays with a western grip on the forehand, but typically returns serve holding a backhand grip, which requires a pretty big adjustment on serves to his forehand or into the body. Look for Isner to bang some body serves to elicit short replies (if any at all).
The Pick: Isner in four sets.
Louis Armstrong Stadium: Alexandr Dolgopolov (14) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (18)
Head-to-head: Dolgopolov leads 1-0
The entertaining Dolgopolov outdueled Jesse Levine in a five-set first-round win, then subdued former Australian Open finalist Marcos Baghdatis in a clash of shotmakers. Dolgopolov has a very quick service action and loose arm, generating a lot of pace from a relatively low toss. He can flatten out the forehand, plays off pace well, and can drive opponents nuts with his extreme slice backhand and propensity for playing the drop shot. Look for him to use the short slice and dropper to try to exploit Wawrinka’s deeper court positioning. The Washington, D.C. champion has won nine of his last 12 matches and should carry plenty of confidence into this one.
Wawrinka is sometimes cast as a clay-courter, but he beat Andy Murray en route to the 2010 U.S. Open quarterfinals, only to lose to Donald Young in New York last year. Wawrinka can play aggressive tennis when he’s inclined, but has a tendency to drift far behind the baseline and rip away. Wawrinka can whip his one-handed backhand cross-court or down the line, and should use that shot to target Dolgopolov's backhand, though the Swiss has to be active with his feet when the Ukranian plays short angles. This is a tough call, but Wawrinka gets the nod.
The Pick: Wawrinka in five sets.