Three to See: Pegula vs. Keys, Medvedev vs. de Minaur, Zverev vs. Sinner

Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys

It will be hard to find a better summation of the dynamic between these two players than the one Pegula gave on Saturday.

“Every time I practice with her, she just has the ability to hit aces and rip forehands and backhands, play a really big power game,” Pegula said of Keys. “It will be interesting to see how smart I can play and what I can do to combat that.

“You know if [she’s] having a good day, you’re in for it. At the same time, I think I have a good game that can disrupt a lot of those [power] players.”

Pegula is 29, Keys is 28, they’re both Americans, and they’ve been pros together for at least a decade. But somehow they’ve played just once, last fall in San Diego. Pegula won 6-4, 7-5.

Every time I practice with her, she just has the ability to hit aces and rip forehands and backhands, play a really big power game. Pegula on Keys

For years, Keys was the superior and higher-ranked of the two, the one who made a US Open final in 2017. Pegula, meanwhile, labored through injuries and smaller events for much of the 2010s. But over the last two years, the Buffalonian has caught and passed the Illinoisan and made herself the highest-ranked U.S. player on either tour.

Still, as Pegula said above, the differences in their games haven’t changed. The more powerful Keys will go for winners, and the steadier Pegula will do her best to make it tough for her to be successful.

Both are coming off three-set wins over strong opponents—Pegula over Elina Svitolina; Keys over Liudmila Samsonova. Both are maximally motivated to win their first Slam at the Open. Pegula has had the better summer, but Keys, with her boyfriend Bjorn Fratangelo at the coaching helm, has looked good so far in New York. Winner: Keys

Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex de Minaur

No. 3 vs. No. 13, with both seemingly in top form, should make for an intriguing encounter. The Russian and the Australian have each dropped one set in three matches, but have been solidly in control the whole way. Medvedev has been playing at a high level all season, while de Minaur joined him there this summer, when he made his first Masters 1000 final, in Toronto.

More important for our immediate purposes, de Minaur also beat Medvedev in two tight sets on the way to that final. That was his second straight victory over Medvedev, after losing their first four meetings.

How much does de Minaur’s Canada win matter? It was blustery in Toronto that day, but it can be blustery at the Open as well. De Minaur will surely gain confidence from it, but I think ultimately the most important affect it will have is to make the ultra-competitive Medvedev do whatever it takes not to let it happen again. Winner: Medvedev

Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner

The second-week heavyweight fights on the men’s side begin here. Zverev and Sinner are both Top 5-quality players with designs on the title, and both have been raising their games for this moment over the past few months. This summer Zverev won his home title in Hamburg for the first time, recorded a breakthrough win over Medvedev, and made the semis in Cincinnati. Sinner reached his first Slam semi at Wimbledon and won his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto.

They’ve played four times and Zverev has won three of them. That includes a close straight-setter in the fourth round at the Open in 2021. The question this year may be whether the younger Sinner, who has been evolving under coach Darren Cahill, has done enough to catch up to Zverev. The Italian is probably destined to pass the German at some point, but is he ready to do it now? Sinner is the bigger hitter and better offensive player, while Zverev is rangier and more consistent. Each has a killer backhand, and a forehand that can break down at times.

On Saturday, Sinner mentioned how tough the 6’6” Zverev’s serve can make life for his opponent. Did he also identify what will make the difference in this match? Winner: Zverev