(9) Samantha Stosur vs. (3) Victoria Azarenka
Head-to-head: Azarenka leads 7-0
Clay can bring out clarity in Stosur and uncertainty in Azarenka, but Vika has dominated this match-up, winning 14 of the 15 sets they’ve played—all on hard courts—invoking her significant advantage on the backhand side. Azarenka has used her two-hander to pound away at Stosur’s sometimes erratic backhand. On hard court, Vika has driven her backhand down the line at times to exploit Stosur’s habit of running around the backhand to hit the forehand.
Clay should help Stosur's cause. It gives her more time to set up for her favored forehand, Azarenka is not as sure-footed on the dirt and 2010 French Open finalist Stosur can use her heavy topspin to open the court. Stosur has been prone to nerves, but she was very tough coming back from a break down in the first set and then shaking off an unsteady second set to defeat Petra Kvitova today.
The last time they met, Azarenka squeezed out a dramatic, 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 (5) victory to reach her first U.S. Open semifinal in a thriller. This surface should suit Sam, who will be primed to break through and beat Vika for the first time. But I’m riding with Azarenka.
The Pick: Azarenka in three sets