US Open Quarterfinal Previews: Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula, Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev

Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula

Looking at the paths these two women took to get here, it seems as if their collision was pre-ordained. Neither has lost a set, or been pushed past 6-4 more than once. Now Swiatek and Pegula will meet for the second time in three years in a US Open quarterfinal.

Will they pick up where they left off that day, when Swiatek won 6-3, 7-6 (4)? Pegula might hope so. In the second set, she raised her game significantly and chased Swiatek all the way to a match-ending tiebreaker.

In the two years since, the Pole and the American have played four times, and each has won twice. When Swiatek wins, she wins big: 6-3, 6-0 in Doha; and 6-1, 6-0 in Cancun. In Canada last year, Pegula edged Swiatek 6-4 in the third on a hard court, that should be a close approximation of what they’ll play on this time.

⤴️ WATCH ABOVE: Jessica Pegula challenges Iga Swiatek in Quarterfinals | TC Live

Pegula likes a fairly quick court for a couple of reasons: It lets her use her opponents’ pace against them, and it helps speed her own low-lining shots through the surface. Since the start of the summer hard-court season in Toronto, she’s 13-1 with a title and a runner-up finish.

“Against Jessie, it’s never easy,” Swiatek says. “It’s going to be, for sure, a tough one, because she plays really flat ball with no spin. You have to really work low on your legs. For sure she’s in a good rhythm right now, and she won so many matches past weeks, that for sure it’s going to be a challenge.”

Swiatek knows that Pegula will likely aim the majority of those flat shots toward her forehand, which can be rushed. But the history of their Grand Slam performances says she’ll be ready. She has five major titles, including one at the US Open, while Pegula is 0-6 in Slam quarterfinals.

Pegula, on this court and in this form, has a chance to change that history, maybe the best she’ll have against Swiatek. But I’ll still take Iga. Winner: Swiatek

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev

These two can’t get away from each other. This will be the ninth meeting between the Russian and the Italian since February 2023. Sinner leads in those matches 5-3, but Medvedev won their most recent encounter, in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon two months ago, in five sets.

Medvedev has surprised Sinner a couple of times with the aggressiveness of his play this year. At this point, though, after all of their time on court together, Medvedev thinks any unexpected moves between the two may be limited to individual points.

“I feel like in a way we know our game, what we will try to bring on the table,” Medvedev says. “And then it comes to always, you know, this moment’s deuce, break point, maybe try to surprise him or not, what he will do, what I will do.”

Each man is doing things quite well at the moment. Sinner and Medvedev both dropped a set in their opening matches, but haven’t surrendered one since. Medvedev says he felt great in his last win, over Nuno Borges, and Sinner may have been even better in taking out Tommy Paul before a pro-American crowd at night.

Medvedev is the self-proclaimed hard-court specialist who has a US Open title, but if the two are both playing well against each other, I think the court will favor Sinner’s clean-hitting, first-strike style, and make it tough for Medvedev to get under his skin. Winner: Sinner

Alex de Minaur vs. Jack Draper

Call this the under-the-radar quarter. Neither the Brit nor the Aussie has won a dramatic match so far, or created much headline news at the Open, but that will OK by them, because now they both have a chance to reach a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time.

So far, Draper is the player who has benefited most from Carlos Alcaraz’s early demise. He hasn’t faced a seed, but he hasn’t lost a set, either, including to Alcaraz’s conqueror, the one-night superstar Botic Van de Zandschulp. As for de Minaur, he had the good fortune of playing Dan Evans just when Evans was feeling the effects of his record-setting five-hour first-round win. De Minaur won the last two sets over him 6-0, 6-0.

De Minaur is 3-0 against Draper, but none of those wins has been easy, or in straight sets. In Tokyo last fall, he escaped in a third-set tiebreaker. He knows that Draper has only improved since then.

“He’s coming off his best year by far,” de Minaur says of Draper. “He’s playing with a lot of confidence. He’s got some very big weapons; his serve, backhand, and forehand at times. So it’s always tough facing someone like him, especially a lefty.”

“It’s the quarterfinals of a Slam. I’m going to go out there and give it my all and compete, and these matches are there to be won. Being passive is not going to get the job done.”

Most of the signs point toward a de Minaur win. He leads the head-to-head. He’s played three Grand Slam quarterfinals before—including at Roland Garros and Wimbledon this year—while this will be Draper’s first. He’s more consistent from day to day, and a proven competitor.

Draper is the wild card. He’s a bigger hitter than de Minaur, and if he’s on, he could take over this match. At some point, he’s going to do that against him. Is this that moment? Winner: Draper