Daniil Medvedev vs. Flavio Cobolli
Coming into the Open, few, if anyone, guessed that Carlos Alcaraz would be out of the event before Daniil Medvedev. It was the Russian, rather than the Spaniard, who was the high seed most likely to make an early exit. The “hard-court specialist” had arrived having lost two straight opening-round matches on hard courts in Montreal and Cincinnati. There was speculation about his service yips, about injuries, about post-Olympic exhaustion. But here he is, having dropped one set in two matches, while Alcaraz is heading home.
Medvedev still hasn’t answered all of the questions, especially those concerning his serve. He double-faulted 10 times in three sets in the second round, and made just 47 percent of first deliveries. That would give an opening to just about any third-round opponent at a Slam, including Flavio Cobolli.
Medvedev has never played or practiced with the Italian. All he can go on is the eye test.
“I saw him play. He has, I think, really explosive tennis,” Medvedev said.
He has that part right. The 22-year-old, 31st-ranked Cobolli plays with a loose-armed abandon that feels new on tour. It has taken him a bit of time to get weapons under control. Perhaps surprisingly for an Italian, it has happened on hard courts this summer. He made the Citi Open final, beat Felix Auger Aliassime in Montreal, and beat Tommy Paul in Cincinnati.
Medvedev has the albatross-like defensive and disruptive skills to frustrate Cobolli. But if his serve is still subpar, it will be a much tougher task. Winner: Medvedev