Each day through the first four rounds, Richard Pagliaro will preview three must-see matches—and give his predictions.
(7) David Ferrer vs. (30) Andy Roddick
—Head to Head: Ferrer leads 6-4
A recharged Roddick is riding a seven-match winning streak and beat Ferrer in four sets at the U.S. Open 10 months ago. His ferocious serve and an imposing grass-court presence that includes five titles and an .800 career winning percentage on turf point to Roddick as the pick here. Tiebreaks may well come into play, and Roddick, a three-time Wimbledon runner-up, owns the most explosive weapon on the court in his serve.
Ferrer has also won seven matches in a row. He’s been the healthier and more consistent player recently, takes the ball earlier, and can flatten out his inside-out forehand to the Roddick backhand. Of course, Roddick can nullify all that if he’s landing his first serve, but if Ferrer can scrape out a few breaks, he should prevail in what should be a fierce battle.
The Pick: Ferrer in four sets
(4) Andy Murray vs. Marcos Baghdatis
—Head to Head: Tied 3-3
The reverberations of Lukas Rosol’s seismic upset of Rafael Nadal linger: With Rafa out of the draw, the winner of this match will feel he has a real shot to make a final-round run.
I thought 2006 semifinalist Baghdatis would fall to Grigor Dimitrov, but the Bag Man delivered and is one win from his first fourth-round appearance at a major since the 2009 Australian Open. The winner of the opening set has won every match in this rivalry, so a fast start is important. Baghdatis is a shotmaker, and beat Murray in their lone turf meeting. Three-time semifinalist Murray is the fitter, faster player who has a slightly better five-set record.
Their forehand exchanges could be key, as both have more reliable backhands but have hit their forehands well so far. If Murray doesn’t tighten and retreat into passive play, this is a match he should win.
The Pick: Murray in four sets
(16) Marin Cilic vs. Sam Querrey
—Head to Head: Cilic leads 2-0
When these two meet, the margin between them is as slim as the width of the net: Both of their grass-court meetings have gone the distance. I think Cilic moves a bit better, has a stronger two-handed backhand, and has the advantage athletically, but Querrey’s serve-forehand combination is the most explosive pattern on the court. If that combination is clicking, Querrey can score his second straight win over a seed.
In past majors, Querrey has fought it out gallantly (falling to Stanislas Wawrinka in five sets at the 2010 U.S. Open) and tapped out meekly (in a 2010 French Open first-round loss). Though he seems recommitted to making the most of his comeback, it’s tough to forecast how he will respond against Cilic, who is typically the more consistent competitor and will be eager to reach the fourth round for the second time.
You have to favor Cilic here, particularly since he just beat Querrey at Queen’s and has a major semifinal to his credit, but we’ll take the admitted risky route and ride with Q, who will need an exceptional serving day to advance.
The Pick: Querrey in five sets