Each day during the U.S. Open, Richard Pagliaro will preview three must-see matches—and offer his predictions.
**Arthur Ashe Stadium: Ana Ivanovic (12) vs. Sloane Stephens
<em>Head-to-head: Ivanovic leads 1-0</em>**
Former No. 1 Ivanovic is within striking distance of a Top 10 return, and while players insist they don’t look ahead in the draw, if Ivanovic has taken a sneak peek, she has to believe she’s in with a shot to reach the quarterfinals for the first time in eight career U.S. Open appearances.
These two met at the same stage of the 2011 U.S. Open, with Ana scoring a relatively routine 6-3, 6-4 win. If Ivanovic is clicking with her favored serve-forehand combination, she will be tough to beat on the fast Arthur Ashe Stadium court. Stephens looked sharp defeating 2010 French Open champ Francesca Schiavone, but was on the edge down a set before rallying in the second round. If Ivanovic plays on her terms, she should prevail: She is the higher-ranked, more accomplished player and she hits harder and flatter.
I believe in Stephens’ game. The 19-year-old from Coral Springs does not shrink from the big stage, and because she plays with plenty of margin and has good speed around the court she should be able to extend Ivanovic in rallies. A key factor could be length of rallies: If Ana can impose her tempo and keep points concise, she can win, but if Sloane can stretch the Serbian side-to-side and exploit her advantage in movement, she can score the upset. I’m not sure quite how it will play out, but believe it is reasonable risk to ride with Stephens.
The Pick: Stephens in three sets.
**Louis Armstrong Stadium: Dominika Cibulkova (13) vs. Roberta Vinci (20)
<em>Head-to-head: Vinci leads 3-2</em>**
The stylish Italian has beaten Cibulkova three times in a row on three different surfaces, including a 6-7 (5), 6-0, 6-4 victory at Indian Wells in March. Vinci, who won the French Open doubles title with compatriot Sara Errani in June, captured her seventh singles title in Dallas earlier this month and has won 11 of her last 13 matches.
The 29-year-old Vinci showed her grit rallying from a set down and winning three straight games to snatch a 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 win over 2010 U.S. Open doubles champion Yaroslava Shvedova in the second round, using her slice backhand to drag Shvedova forward at times. Look for her to use that play against Cibulkova as well. If extreme heat is a factor that could favor Vinci, who is extremely fit and has won four of her last five three-setters.
Don’t be fooled by the 5’3” Slovak’s small size: Cibulkova cracks the ball with authority. The 2010 U.S. Open quarterfinalist is at her best straddling the baseline and ripping drives into the corners. Vinci has more variety and tends to be more consistent, but Cibulkova has more sting on her shots and plays a game more conducive to faster hard courts, making her the pick.
The Pick: Cibulkova in three sets.
**Arthur Ashe Stadium: Agnieszka Radwanska (2) vs. Jelena Jankovic (30)
<em>Head-to-head: Radwanska leads 2-1</em>**
Jankovic has held the No. 1 ranking and Radwanska is within reach of the top spot. Former U.S. Open finalist Jankovic has permitted just nine games in two wins, though both were against opponents outside the Top 100. She takes a significant step up in class against the Wimbledon runner-up.
The second-ranked Radwanska looked tentative at times at the outset vs. Carla Suarez Navarro, but won 12 of the last 15 games to create closure. The clever player from Poland uses the more of the court than Jankovic, and her forehand tends to be a bit more solid. Jankovic is playing some of her best tennis of the season—she’s won six of her last seven matches—and Radwanska’s heavy match work load and sore shoulder could be catching up to her.
Ultimately, Radwanska has more shots, has had a better season, and if this goes three, Radwanska has the advantage: She is 10-5 in three-setters this year and Jankovic is 5-10.
The Pick: Radwanska in three sets.