Each day during the U.S. Open, Richard Pagliaro will preview three must-see matches—and offer his predictions.
Arthur Ashe Stadium: Maria Sharapova (3) vs. Nadia Petrova (19)
Head-to-head: Sharapova leads 8-1
This has been a comfortable match-up with Sharapova because she plays harder and flatter from the baseline, and has been able to break down Petrova’s sometime unruly forehand. Petrova plays the forehand with a western grip and will sometimes struggle to get under the low ball to the forehand.
The styles and stats favor Sharapova. The French Open champion has won six of their seven hard-court meetings, won 22 of her last 24 matches, surrendered just seven games in three tournament wins here, and is up against an opponent she’s dominated.
The 30-year-old Petrova’s serve is an x-factor here: If she’s landing a high-percentage of first serves, she can hang in the match, but if Sharapova is getting a lot of looks at second serves, she will ravage returns and force her compatriot to defend. Petrova could test her, but Sharapova is undefeated in three-set matches this year, and I don’t anticipate her stumbling here.
The Pick: Sharapova in two sets.
Louis Armstrong Stadium: Laura Robson vs. Samantha Stosur (7)
Head-to-head: First meeting
Robson won the Wimbledon junior title four years ago, and now she’s making her mark at the Open. The 18-year-old left-hander knocked off four-time Grand Slam champion Kim Clijsters in the opening round, then upset 2011 French Open champ Li Na in her next match. Robson impressed with her poise and her ability to make both veterans defend on key points.
This is an intriguing match because Robson’s left-handed cross-court forehand feeds directly into Stosur’s weaker backhand wing. Robson played with patience and unloaded a couple of critical forehands down the line when she caught Clijsters leaning left. I think that will be a key shot in this match, because Stosur often starts points dancing to her left to run around her backhand to fire her forehand. In order to keep the Aussie’s court positioning honest, Robson must connect on that forehand down the line.
Defending champion Stosur has won nine straight matches in New York, and unlike Robson’s prior two opponents she plays heavy topspin, which could unsettle the Briton. It’s tempting to pick Robson, but Stosur served impressively against Varvara Lepchenko, winning 16 of 17 points played on her serve in the second set. If she serves that well again, she should prevail.
The Pick: Stosur in three sets.
Grandstand: Marion Bartoli (11) vs. Petra Kvitova (5)
Head-to-head: Bartoli leads 2-1
Two of their three meetings have gone the distance, but Kvitova crushed Bartoli, 6-1, 6-1, en route to the Montreal title last month. Bartoli is a fearless returner, who takes a predatory posture inside the baseline and loves to rip the ball on the rise. The former Wimbledon finalist will try to attack Kvitova’s second serve, rush her into errors, and control the center of the court.
Kvitova snapped a 10-month title drought by capturing two of her last three tournaments (Montreal and New Haven), and has won 15 of her last 16 matches. When Kvitova’s game goes off she tends to pull the trigger prematurely, plays down the line too frequently, and misfires on her forehand. If Kvitova can stay disciplined and work the cross-court angles early in rallies to stretch her shorter opponent, whose reach is restricted playing with two hands off both sides, she will make her down-the-line drives much more effective.
Kvitova is an all-court player who is a fine volleyer, but she sometimes doesn’t close the net with urgency, creating challenging half volleys rather than more manageable high volleys. Bartoli is a tough customer, but I believe Kvitova is a future No. 1 who will win multiple majors as she becomes more polished. Kvitova is on a roll, and barring an implosion of errors, she should reach her fifth quarterfinal in her last six majors.
The Pick: Kvitova in two sets.