Tommy Paul faces Daniil Medvedev again; Jessica Pegula meets Elina Svitolina: Indian Wells, Day 7 Preview

Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul

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For two guys in their mid-to-late 20s, who tend to go deep at big events, the Russian and the American haven’t run into each other often. Paul and Medvedev have played just four times; by far the most relevant of those matches came a year ago in the semifinals at Indian Wells. Paul, riding a wave of home fan energy, won the first set 6-1, before Medvedev dug his way out in a second-set tiebreaker and a 6-2 third set.

A year later, Medvedev is still ranked five spots higher (No. 6 to No. 11), but Paul has had the better 2025 so far, making the Australian Open quarterfinals and the Dallas semifinals. Medvedev, meanwhile, has started sluggishly at best, going out in the second round in Melbourne, and failing to get anything going in Doha or Dubai. All of which means this feels like an important match for both guys. For Paul, a win would mark another step up the ladder and toward the elite; for Medvedev, it might help shake him out of his mini-slump.

There’s also an interesting clash in styles here. Paul plays a textbook modern attacking game, relying on his speed, topspin forehand, and two-handed backhand to move into the court and close at net. Medvedev, by contrast, plays a game that is uniquely his own, based on consistency, wide-winged defense, and a strong serve.

On the one hand, Medvedev, a two-time runner-up at Indian Wells, is not a great matchup for Paul on these courts. On the other hand, Paul is not a great matchup for Medvedev in front of these fans. Winner: Paul

Elena Rybakina vs. Mirra Andreeva

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Andreeva is not No. 1—yet—but she’s the WTA’s player of the moment. The 17-year-old Russian, after a 1000 title in Dubai and two rounds at Indian Wells, has won eight straight matches, and they’ve become more one-sided with each passing day. On Sunday, she made 6-3, 6-0 work of her putative future rival Clara Tauson.

One of Andreeva’s wins came over Rybakina in Dubai. That one wasn’t lopsided; it took her three tough sets. For now, while she isn’t generating the same kind of attention as Andreeva, Rybakina remains the higher-ranked player. While she has been relatively under the radar, she’s 15-5 this season, and she won Indian Wells as recently as 2023.

Andreeva already has the smoother all-around game than Rybakina, and it may be the better one eventually. The question for today is whether she’s better now. Rybakina’s serve is still a bigger weapon, and when she’s on, she may have the more potent baseline attack. Which means this contest will be a good test for where Andreeva stands as a Grand Slam threat in 2025. I’m going to guess that she’ll pass. Winner: Andreeva

Jessica Pegula vs. Elina Svitolina

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Pegula and Svitolina have met in some important moments over the years. In the fourth round at the Australian Open in 2021, Pegula won in three sets. She did the same thing when they played in the third round at the US Open in 2023. But Svitolina turned the tables in what may have been their biggest match, at the Paris Olympics last summer.

How about Indian Wells? Their one meeting in the desert bodes well for Pegula—she won it 6-1, 6-1 when the tournament was held in the fall of 2021 due to the pandemic. Pegula also comes into this match with a significantly higher ranking (No. 4 to No. 23), and a title run last week in Austin. Yet Svitolina looked sharp in her straight-set win over Danielle Collins on Sunday.

The American and the Ukrainian are similar physically, and they win in similar ways. Not with their serve, but with a hard-working blend of pace and consistency from the ground. Most days, Pegula hits a little harder, a little deeper, and with a little precision. Winner: Pegula