As top seeds tumble at Indian Wells, could Tommy Paul capture an elusive Masters 1000?

INDIAN WELLS, Calif.—The March maxim “survive and advance” does not only apply to upcoming college basketball tournaments.

Tommy Paul, the tenth seed at the BNP Paribas Open, cruised past Altadena native Tristian Boyer in his opening match, 6-3, 6-1. As he was doing that, No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev was exiting the tournament, and No. 4 seed Casper Ruud would soon follow.

In the relative blink of an eye, Paul’s title prospects dramatically increased, even if he’ll face a former champion, Cameron Norrie, in the next round. The American should feel confident, however. Norrie is just 6-6 this season, and a mountain chasm away from the Top 10 player he was for nine magical weeks in 2022.

Paul, on the other hand, is just two spots off his career-high ranking of No. 9 and is 11-3 on the season, with two final fours and a Grand Slam elite eight. Even his one-match stay in Acapulco comes with a queasy asterisk: food poisoning.

“I was throwing up, stomach was messed up,” Paul revealed after his win on Friday.

If healthy—Paul withdrew from Delray Beach in mid-February with a shoulder injury, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting him any longer—the 27-year-old is a legitimate threat at any best-of-three-set event. He won three titles last year (two on indoor hard, one on grass), and reached the semis at Rome and Indian Wells.

But a Masters title remains elusive.

Of the Top 11 players across both tours, only five have yet to win a 1000-level tournament.

“I have a 250 title. I have a 500 title. Obviously want more of those, but the next step would be winning a tournament like this,” Paul told TENNIS.com in a small press sit-down.

“It’s not really a secret: I do love the conditions here, I love playing in the States. So, I mean, not many places I’d rather do it.”

Indian Wells might be fitting, but Paul would surely take a maiden Masters anywhere he could get it. The 2023 Australian Open semifinalist is 12-4 lifetime at the BNP Paribas Open—it’s his best win percentage at a single Masters event—and has reached five 1000-level quarterfinals.

Of the Top 11 players across both tours, only five have yet to win a 1000-level tournament: Paul, Ruud, Alex de Minaur, Emma Navarro and Qinwen Zheng.

The 2025 ATP season will be shaped by the 1000s more than ever before, with all but two Masters tournaments taking place over a two(ish)-week span, and featuring 96-player draws (the exceptions are Monte Carlo and the Paris Indoors).

What does Paul think of this evolution and expansion?

“I don’t particularly love it, to be honest,” he said. “I played 69 minutes today, and I have a day off tomorrow. We’re professional athletes, we don’t need that. When you play three-out-of-five-set matches, the day off is super necessary. Two out of three, not so much.

“But I mean I guess it gets more fans out here, more days, it’s probably great for the tournament. At the end of the day, we’re an entertainment business.”

If Paul puts himself in more positions to win big at the business end of tournaments, though, he may learn to love it—while entertaining along the way.