Q: Which players are most likely to emerge to contest the quarterfinals at the Australian Open?
A: That's a curious way to put a question usually framed like this: Who's going to win this tournament? But in many ways it's a better question, even if the answer is less satisfying for those who seek closure before an event even begins. In fact, it's the most realistic and valuable of all pre-tournament questions, for a number of reasons, including the fact that I have yet to meet a person with a fully-functioning crystal ball. Many things happen at a major, most of them bad for all but two singles players —one of each sex.
Grand Slam events are often described as "two tournaments"—the first week, when the smoke and din of the battlefield tends to obscure all things, and the second week, which is the time when the real sorting out of contenders and pretenders begin. That approach is useful, but I'd take it one step further and say that the two tournaments consist of the first four rounds (the completion of which gets you well into the second week), and the main event, which begins with the quarterfinals.
So let's preview each eighth (16 players) of each draw, starting with the No. 1 seed (the first line on the draw) and working down in order to line 128, reserved for the No. 2 seed. We'll take the men first:
First Eighth: Australian prodigy and bad boy Bernard Tomic, looking for his official breakout, is in Rafael Nadal's road, as is the top seed's countryman, Feliciano Lopez. But the real minefield here is the bottom half, where Radek Stepanek and Marin Cilic loom as the main stumbling blocks for perhaps the most dangerous guy in the quarter, John Isner. Nadal may have to overcome two men who may try to handcuff and keep him from establishing his running game, the attack-minded Lopez and big-serving Isner. Look for either Nadal, Isner or Cilic to emerge as the quarterfinalist.
Second Eighth: Michael Llodra, another attacker and a Grand Slam doubles titlist, is nicely positioned here to make his first Grand Slam singles quarterfinal. He finished last year strong, and while the courts in Melbourne won't be as friendly to his game as a fast indoor hard or grass, he could knock off the highest seed in this bracket, David Ferrer (No. 7). The mercurial but aging and injury-plagued David Nalbandian and Mikhail Youzhny are also in this quarter. Ferrer is the statistical favorite, but I'm looking for Llodra or Youzhny to punch through.
Third Eighth: No. 4 Robin Soderling (my pick to win the tournament; what fun is it picking Federer or Nadal, anyway?) has a big problem: No. 13 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who's a former finalist and an extremely dangerous player when not injured. Two of the more attractive players in the game, Thomaz Bellucci and Ernests Gulbis, are also in the mix, as is the volatile Alexandr Dolgopolov. I like Soderling, whose test against Tsonga would come in the fourth round.
Fourth Eighth: Andy Murray has a Soderling problem, only in his case the the single obvious stumbling block is Juan Martin del Potro, who's on the comeback trail. If del Potro finds his mojo, he could meet Murray, the No. 5 seed, in the fourth round. Given that del Potro is short on matches and must contend with the often debilitating Australian heat, Murray is lucky that he doesn't have to meet the Argentine sooner. If the meeting is to take place, Delpo probably will have to dispatch Jurgen Melzer, while Murray will have to deal with former Oz runner-up Marcos Baghdatis. A Murray-Delpo fourth-rounder is enough to make any fan's mouth water. I believe Murray comes through.
Fifth Eighth: This section is apt to be highly competitive, with Nikolay Davydenko, no stranger to the late stages of Grand Slam play, seeded low (No. 23) but more than capable of knocking off the two highest seeds, Tomas Berdych (No. 6) and Fernando Verdasco (No. 9). How about this? Ryan Harrison knocks off Berdych and Davydenko, then meets Kei Nishikori, who subdues Verdasco, in an all-Nick Bollettieri fourth round? Fat chance. I think Davydenko comes through, or Berdych.
Sixth Eighth: Novak Djokovic, seeded No. 3, presides here, and it's hard to see anyone in the quarter stopping him. Ivan Ljubicic is too old and has a terrible record in majors. Viktor Troicki, a fellow Serb, is a Djokovic wingman, and Igor Andreev lacks the firepower. The only guy likely to trouble Djokovic is Nicolas Almagro—if he were three inches taller. Let's go with the former Melbourne champ, Djokovic.
Seventh Eighth: You've got to love the prospect of an Andy Roddick vs. Gael Monfils fourth rounder, and in all honesty there isn't all that much standing in the way of that happening. Still, Monfils may have an unexpectedly tough first-rounder in Thiemo De Bakker, while Juan Monaco could stretch and stress Roddick. But the most likely apple-cart upsetter here is No. 19 seed Stanislas Wawrinka. Pencil him in as the quarterfinalist.
Eighth Eighth: No. 2 seed and defending champ Roger Federer will have to keep his hands on the wheel to emerge from this quarter, because some of the guys he's lumped in with have shown they can play—when they want to. He may meet, in order starting with the second round, Gilles Simon, Xavier Malisse (who's enjoying a late career surge and still has talent to burn) and Albert Montanes. Should he survive—and I think he will—Federer most likely to meet Sam Querrey or Mardy Fish in the fourth round. Federer probably will survive, but he'll be tested.
So, my men's quarterfinal lineup is: Nadal, Llodra, Soderling, Murray, Davydenko, Djokovic, Wawrinka and Federer.
!Woz Women's Draw:
First Eighth: Top-seed and world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki will get a first-round test administered by veteran Gisela Dulko, but if she survives that she'll probably end up clashing with Yanina Wickmayer in the fourth round—provided Wickmayer gets by tricky Marion Bartoli. I'm going with Caro.
Second Eighth: Former Aussie champ and world No. 1 Justine Henin, seeded 11th, could play her first two rounds against qualifiers, but if veteran Svetlana Kuznetsova shows up for their prospective third-round match, Henin may not even make it to a fourth-round date with reigning French Open champion Francesca Schiavone. Every tournament needs one big surprise, though, and I'm going to pencil in Bethanie Mattek-Sands of the USA as a surprise quarterfinalist.
Third Eighth: How does a fourth-round clash between Venus Williams and Maria Sharapova sound to you? It could happen, although Andrea Petkovic could make Venus' life difficult, and No. 20 seed Kaia Kanepi will see a great opportunity in still-struggling Sharapova. I still like No. 4 Venus to beat Sharapova out for the quarters, although it's not apt to be pretty.
Fourth Eighth: Two of the most explosive players in draw are stationed here, No. 8 Victoria Azarenka and No. 17 Aravane Rezai. But the calm force in the quarter is Li Na, who just became the first Chinese player to win a WTA Premier-level event (Sydney, over Clijsters).
Fifth Eighth: Are we about to see a Jelena Jankovic renaissance? Nah. I can see her going out in the second round to surprise quarterfinalist Peng Shuai of China.
Sixth Eighth: Three players who consistently crop up on the WTA "damaged goods" list are in this quarter: headcase Nadia Petrova, in-recovery Ana Ivanovic, and former world No. 1 and injury plagued Dinara Safina, who will open her tournament going up against the No. 3 seed, Clijsters. I'm calling for the shocking first-round upset, and Ivanovic to tip-toe through the wreckage to the quarters.
Seventh Eighth: Sam Stosur, seeded fifth, is in the driver's seat in this quarter; the next highest seed is Shahar Peer, No. 10. But as the home favorit Stosur will be under a good deal of pressure, and in her only warm-up event she was bounced in the second round by countrywoman Jarmila Groth. I like Petra Kvitova, No. 25, to serve-and-volley her way to the quarters.
Eighth Eighth: No. 2 seed Vera Zvonareva has an interesting first-round challenge in the shape of Sybille Bammer, the woman who launched the current Golden Girls theme in the WTA. The next highest seed is Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. For Melanie Oudin watchers, she's on track to play Zvonareva in round two, but despite Oudin's history as a Russian slayer, I think Zvonareva will slice-and-dice her way through.
So the women's quarters: Wozniacki, Mattek-Sands, Williams, Li, Shuai, Ivanovic, Kvitova and Zvonareva.
Go ahead, take your own flyers now.