Trying to Right the Ship in Rome

Let’s try this again, shall we? The first top-level event of the WTA’s clay-court season, in Madrid, didn’t go as planned, or as hoped. Only one seed survived into the quarterfinals, and the showcase semifinal and final matches were duds all around. But with a new week comes another chance, in Rome, for the top women to right the collective ship before they get to the French Open.

While the defending champion in Rome, Maria Sharapova, won’t be there, things still look more promising for one simple reason: World No. 1 Serena Williams, who pulled out of Madrid due to illness, will be in the draw. Here’s a look at how Serena and the rest of the WTA field may fare at the Foro Italico.

Hint: Your guess is as good as mine.

Can Serena, who hasn’t played since losing to Svetlana Kuznetsova in Miami a month ago, avoid catching the upset bug that devastated Madrid? She would hardly seem to be immune. Since winning at Roland Garros last year, she’s played just one match on clay. The rust was obvious in her doubles match with her sister, Venus, on Monday; the three-time Olympic gold medalists lost to unseeded Andreka Klepac and Katerina Srebotnik in straight sets.

Judging by her draw, Serena won’t have much time to work that rust off. She starts against Anna-Lena Friedsam, a German who took a set from Serena at Roland Garros last year. Also in Serena’s quarter is Simona Halep, the champion last week in Madrid, and Kuznetsova.

Rome isn’t essential to Serena’s plans for Paris. In 2014, she won the title at the Foro before losing in the second round at Roland Garros; last year, she withdrew in the round of 16 in Rome before going all the way at the French. But she sure could use the matches.

Semifinalist: Halep

When Victoria Azarenka won the Indian Wells-Miami double in April, it looked like the WTA had found another player to rely on. Not so fast: Azarenka injured her back in Madrid and withdrew after her first match. Now the questions return: How ready will she be in Rome this week, and in Paris after that? Provided she can go full speed, Vika's draw in Rome looks manageable. The second-highest seed in her quarter is Roberta Vinci, who has traditionally struggled in front of her home fans—the Italian hasn’t won a match here since 2013. Meanwhile, Karolina Pliskova, a sometimes-dangerous player who was slated to face Azarenka in the third round, was upset by Daria Kasatkina on Monday.

Also here: Lucie Safarova, Johanna Konta

Semifinalist: Azarenka

Last year at this time, Carla Suarez Navarro was riding a career crest. She had reached the final in Miami and would do the same in Rome. So far in 2016 she’s had her ups and downs—good results tend to be followed by first-round losses—but she seems to have steadied herself on clay. Looking at her draw here, another deep run in Rome seems possible. The second seed in this quarter is her old doubles partner, Garbiñe Muguruza, who continues to struggle; another seed, Elina Svitolina, has already been sent packing. One player who does remain is Timea Bacsinszky; a semifinalist at the French Open in 2015, the Swiss won a clay event in Rabat last month.

Semifinalist: Suarez Navarro

Angelique Kerber and Petra Kvitova are the top two seeds here, but what, if anything, does that mean? Both women looked good three weeks ago in Stuttgart, where the German beat the Czech in a well-played, three-set semifinal. Judging by their play that day, I thought each of these major champions could be well-positioned to make a title run at Roland Garros. Judging by their play last week in Madrid, though, a reassessment was in order; each lost disappointingly early.

Now Kvitova and Kerber have one more chance to build some pre-Paris momentum, but it won’t be easy. Kvitova will open against her partner in utter unpredictability, Madison Keys, while Kerber will face either Jelena Jankovic or Eugenie Bouchard.

Also here: Venus Williams, who won her opener over CoCo Vandeweghe

Semifinalist: Kvitova

Semifinals: Halep d. Azarenka; Suarez Navarro d. Kvitova

Final: Suarez Navarro d. Halep