Tsitsipas' breakthrough; a WTA encore: Predicting the 2020 Grand Slams

Those of us who write about tennis for a living wander into dangerous territory when we become prognosticators. But guessing is what makes the game so alluring: no matter how predictable the outcomes might appear to be, the fact remains that anything can happen.

Now that we have landed in 2020, I am ready to make some short and long range forecasts for the four major tournaments. There are too many imponderables, but here are my projections.

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Novak Djokovic has won a men’s record seven Australian Open titles over the course of his career—including a sterling final-round dissection of Rafael Nadal in 2019—and the Serbian must be regarded as the favorite once more. Djokovic may be No. 2 in the world, but he is surely the man to beat in Melbourne as he chases a 17th major title.

Nadal, of course, will be thoroughly in the hunt as he goes full force after a 20th Grand Slam title, which would place him in a tie with Roger Federer for the men’s major title record. The Australian Open is the only major Nadal has not won at least twice. But since he secured the crown eleven years ago, he has been to the final round four times, twice losing in five-set clashes after being up a break in the final set—against Djokovic in an epic 2012 encounter, and versus Federer in a dandy three years ago.

However, my pick to be victorious is Stefanos Tsitsipas. My gut tells me that he is going to establish himself as the first man outside of the Big 3 to come through at a major since Stan Wawrinka captured the 2016 US Open. Tsitsipas upended Federer in the round of 16 last year in Oz, and made it to the semifinals; he also concluded the year in style by winning the ATP Finals. The gifted 21-year-old Greek stylist is ready for a breakthrough triumph.

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And what of the women? The view here is that every member of the Top 10—including Serena Williams, who is eager to tie Australian Margaret Court’s all-time record of 24 majors—has a serious chance to win. Across the past three seasons, from 2017 through 2019, ten different women took the 12 Grand Slam events. Only Naomi Osaka and Simona Halep were able to garner two majors in that span.

This time around, Australia’s immensely popular Ashleigh Barty will be the sentimental favorite at the season’s lead-off major. The French Open champion is a versatile, all-surface player who should perform well on hard courts. She will be in the thick of things, as will 2018 runner-up Halep, seven-time champion Serena, world No. 2 Karolina Pliskova and the dynamic US Open champion Bianca Andreescu. Elina Svitolina will also be among the leading candidates. But my pick to win the tournament is the defending champion Osaka. Although she is ranked third in the world, she might be the best player of them all, at her zenith.

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In 2019, I believed Djokovic was going to win a fourth consecutive Grand Slam title for the second time in his career by taking the French Open. He might have managed that substantial feat had he overcome Dominic Thiem in their five-set semifinal, but the Austrian prevailed in that encounter—Nadal defeated Thiem for his 12th crown in Paris. This year, I am unhesitatingly picking Nadal. Rafa has played the French Open 15 times and has lost only twice—to Robin Soderling in the round of 16 in 2009, and to Djokovic in the 2015 quarterfinals. In 2016, an injury forced him to withdraw before his third-round match. His invincibility in Paris is irrefutable.

Last year, the Spaniard was unusually vulnerable all through the European clay-court swing leading up to Roland Garros, but once he arrived in Paris, the inimitable southpaw was unshakable. Thiem has been runner-up to Nadal the past two years. Djokovic was the victor in 2016. Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev are both formidable clay-court players capable of prevailing. But Nadal will be the last man standing, securing the world’s premier clay-court title for the fourth consecutive year.

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Can Barty defend her women’s title in Paris? She clearly could, although that would be no mean feat. A wide range of players will contend for that crown, and Svitolina is more than capable of at long last securing her first major. But I am going with Halep to exploit her supreme industriousness, fighting spirit and ingenuity to the hilt in winning her second title in Paris and her third major altogether.

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If the enigmatic Alexander Zverev is ever going to make his long-awaited breakthrough at one of the sport’s centerpiece events, this would be the place. Even a place where Federer has his best possible chance to collect a 21st Grand Slam title. After having match points against Djokovic in that singularly gripping 2019 final, don’t put it past Federer to win Wimbledon for the ninth time as he closes in on his 39th birthday.

Between 2006 and 2011, excluding 2009 when he did not play, Nadal reached every Wimbledon final, and won the tournament twice. The last two years, the Spaniard reached the semifinals on the British lawns. He will almost certainly make it to the latter stages of Wimbledon again this year.

But I see Djokovic stepping forward to win the world’s most prestigious title for the third year in a row and the sixth time overall. He always seems to find the right balance between offense and defense on the grass courts at the All England Club. I like his chances; sorry, Sascha.

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Put Barty down as my choice to rule among the women in London. With her capacity to comfortably make her way to the net and volley better than any of her rivals, Barty clearly has the game to win Wimbledon. This will be her year. In my view, she will need to overcome Serena in either the semifinals or the final, but she will do just that to win the sport’s most coveted crown.

Having said that, I expect a resurgence from Angelique Kerber. The 2018 champion will make a spirited run and perhaps reach the final.

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All of the top players will be primed for this hard-court festival-finale in New York. Nadal has ruled at the Open four times altogether, including two of the last three years. The reshaping of his game under the guidance of Carlos Moya must not be underestimated. Nadal’s markedly improved serving and capacity to shorten points makes him increasingly dangerous nowadays on faster surfaces.

He will inevitably be around deep into the New York fortnight. So, too, will Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Thiem. All of these men will advance to the quarterfinals or beyond. But for the second major in a row, the man holding the trophy will be none other than Djokovic. The Serbian will overcome Medvedev in a hard-fought, four-set semifinal, followed by a similarly well-contested final with Nadal. While the Serbian has been magnificent at the Australian Open and has never lost a final, he has underperformed in New York, losing five of the eight finals he has contested.

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The battle for supremacy among the women will be compelling. Pliskova might well reach her second final in New York. Osaka figures to be one of the semifinalists. Coco Gauff will reach her first semifinal at a major tournament. But, in the end, the demonstrative Andreescu will successfully defend her title. The Canadian’s piercing second serve returns will be one of the primary reasons she holds onto her crown. She will stop Serena at the Open, again, this time in the semifinals. And then Andreescu will overcome a sterling serving performance from Pliskova in a final entirely worthy of the occasion.

So there you have it. Three different men—Tsitsipas, Nadal and Djokovic—will be the pacesetters at the four majors. And four women—Osaka, Halep, Barty, and Andreescu—all having come through before at the sport’s most cherished venues, will be victorious again. The way I see it, 2020 will be a season to savor for an entire decade.