LONDON—Grand Slam tournaments often produce surprise semifinalists, and it always to leads to much weeping and gnashing of teeth among the usual suspects at that stage: To wit, the top names are apt to be spotted shaking their fists at the ether, bellowing, “Oh, why couldn’t I be the one who gets [fill in the name of your choice, from Martin Verkerk to Rainer Schuettler]????”
It isn’t going to be that way this year. Top seed and world No. 1 Rafael Nadal and No. 4 Andy Murray are probably perfectly content to let No. 2 Novak Djokovic deal with that big bronze bundle of thunder, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. It may seem a misnomer to call Tsonga a “surprise semifinalist,” but the bottom line is that he’s the No. 12 seed—and while he's a former Grand Slam finalist (Australian Open, 2008), few pundits would have penciled him into the final four here, at least not before the Queen's Club tournament.
In the final of that event, Tsonga was up a set and a break on Andy Murray, although he let it slip away and lost, 6-4 in the third. But then, in a familiar scenario, he lost meekly to Radek Stepanek at Eastbourne, winning just five games. As usual, Tsonga was an unknown quantity coming into Wimbledon, but now we all know, and most of us probably would agree with this assessment rendered by Rafael Nadal:
“You know how difficult is this surface, how difficult is everything. Because when you play against one player like Tsonga that he has this fantastic serve, you are under pressure all the time even if you are winning two sets to love, because you have a break, you have few mistakes with your serve, he has a break, probably he has the set. And that's every time. . .”
Tsonga has an outstanding, 5-2 record against Djokovic, all the matches on hard courts, but none more current than 2010—before Djokovic morphed into the main challenger to Nadal's sovereignty. Still, Tsonga promises to be a particularly troublesome opponent for Djokovic, who has frittered away opportunities at Wimbledon almost every year he’s played here.
In 2007, Djokovic allowed a two-sets lead against Marcos Baghdatis to disappear, and while he won the match in five sets, he sustained an injury that ultimately contributed to his having to retire against Nadal in the semis. The following year, he lost in the second round to a guy famous for stinking up the joint here, Marat Safin. In 2009, he was beaten by Tommy Haas, who’s never been in a major final. And last year, he lost a semifinal match against Tomas Berdych, one that he later admitted was a passive, strategic disaster.
In Tsonga, Djokovic is facing a man much like Berdych—a big, powerful, hard-serving competitor who isn’t afraid to take chances or seize the initiative in a match. We all saw how quickly and comprehensively Tsonga turned the tables on Federer the other day; a mere glimmer of hope in the third set turned into a supernova that pulverized the No. 3 seed. While Federer had a two-sets to none lead at one point, he had just one break point in the entire match.
This is bad news for Djokovic, who followed form and allowed his last opponent (Bernard Tomic) a lot of wriggle room. Granted, Tomic’s off-pace, tricky game irritates Djokovic, but he can’t afford to be so up-and-down against a player who can put a lid on a match as firmly as does Tsonga. “Let's say the performance against (Michael) Llodra was great,” Djokovic said yesterday. “Against Baghdatis, not so great. First two rounds was really good. Kind of up and down. But hopefully now it's going to go up.”
The bottom line: This one is the upset special. I’m picking Tsonga in four sets.
The other semifinal is less compelling, partly due to recent history. Nadal has is 11-4 overall against Andy Murray, and 4-2 against him in Grand Slam events (both of Murray’s wins were on hard courts). Nadal handled Murray in straight sets in Paris just weeks ago, and he’s won their only two meetings at Wimbledon, including last year’s semifinal, in straight sets as well.
One of Nadal’s trademarks is the genuine respect he has for all his opponents and rivals, and you can tell it’s a genuine component of his character when he digs down into the memory bank and extemporaneously says, “I think I played two fantastic matches against Andy (at Wimbledon). 2008 probably was a different situation, because Andy started to play really well that year, but especially after that.
“Last year I beat him here in the semifinals, but was very close match, even if was in straight sets. Second set he had a set point with his serve. . . For me, the last few months of Andy was very, very good.”
As it turns out, the panic over the state of Murray’s game, which reached a fevered pitch this spring, was overblown. Murray’s resurgence is complete, and may never have been much of a makeover anyway. As he said: “You know, I was not in a great position mentally. But, I was trying to say all along I didn't feel like I was in sort of a crisis. . . It's not like you lose your game overnight. It doesn't go away. Sometimes it just takes a little bit of time to find it.”
The problem I see for Murray in this match is that the relatively low bounce and speed of Centre Court greatly reduces his counter-punching options. His style is best suited to a court that’s fast enough for him to hit winners and exploit potential changes of pace, but slow enought to be capable of producing a high bounce—high enough to allow him to get a look at the high-quality shots of his opponents and, ideally, enable him to make a smooth transition from defense to offense.
One intangible that could hurt Murray in this match is his friendship and regard for Rafa, which seems a bit more authentic and deeply felt than the de rigeur if genuine esteem he feels for his other rivals. They are, as both of them let us know the other day in their press conferences, PlayStation buddies.
“Normally we play PlayStation outside the court when we are in the same hotels in the tournament,” Nadal said. “Now he really don't want to play more. He lost the last few times.” Nadal smiled. “Well, no, seriously. Well, seriously, that's true. He lost almost every time. He played with his friend Danny (Vallverdu) against (Juan) Monaco and me, and we won.”
Murray retorted to that blast: “He (Rafa) actually isn't very good at PlayStation. His partner is very good. He plays with Juan Monaco, and Juan Monaco is very good.” Murray smiled. “As a team, they play well.”
Tomorrow, it will be about rackets, not joysticks, and grunts of effort rather than electronic blips and cues. And while Juan Monaco won’t be at Nadal’s side, I still think Rafa will win.