US Open ATP QF previews: Medvedev vs. Rublev, Thiem vs. de Minaur

When asked to describe Daniil Medvedev in one word, Karen Khachanov simply said “octopus.” But even a Giant Pacific octopus would have been aced more times than Medvedev this week at the US Open. If you can believe it, the Russian has only been aced nine times in four matches.

While much of this is due to his unfathomably deep return position, the rest has to do with him being the closest thing to a literal octopus we’ve ever seen on a court. Top pros are accustomed to getting free points on their serve. But what happens when an opponent denies you the luxury of free points? Well, they win, of course.

In his first four rounds, Medvedev has dropped just 27 total games. He is the oddsmakers favorite to take home the title, and only Rafael Nadal has had an answer for the Russian the past two years in Flushing Meadows.

Medvedev’s opponent, Andrey Rublev, makes the bulk of his money by hitting people off the court. But you can’t do that against Medvedev, and Rublev has been unable to overpower his good friend in their two previous meetings, losing both matches they played in 2019 convincingly, in straight sets.

Expect more of the same on Wednesday, as tennis is first and foremost a game of matchups and Rublev’s aggressive style plays into Medvedev’s hands (tentacles), and I’m not sure Rublev is the type of player who will adjust his game plan enough to trouble the 6’6” lanky beast (if there even is a game plan that can trouble Medvedev on these courts).

Rublev is going to hit power shots, and Medvedev is going to use his incredible defense to frustrate his opponent for the third consecutive time. The oddsmakers expect Medvedev to win by a score differential of at least five games. Unless Rublev plays the match of his life, expect his US Open run to end via tentacular strangulation.

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev

Getty/USTA

In the second semifinal matchup, Dominic Thiem and Alex de Minaur should present us with a phenomenal clash of styles. It’s tough to think of two top-30 players with a more different approach to the game. Thiem, who has been standing near the back fence on the majority of his returns, will try and overwhelm the “Demon", who hugs the baseline each match like he’ll never see it again.

In their past two meetings at the 2017 US Open and 2018 Davis Cup (both best-of-five), Thiem has dropped just a single set, but de Minaur earned lofty praise after their Davis Cup clash.

"Alex has proved he's world class this year," Thiem said.

If de Minaur was “world class” in 2018, then he’s likely “all-world” caliber following his first Grand Slam quarterfinal berth and straight set victory over Vasek Pospisil.

While the oddsmakers believe Thiem is a massive favorite (even more so than Medvedev against Rublev), de Minaur’s ability to take shots on the rise and chase down Thiem’s heavy groundstrokes could prove problematic for the Austrian. By no means expect an upset, but don’t be surprised to see Thiem struggle in the early stages while he formulates a plan of attack against the unorthodox, and extremely fast, Australian.

The Pick: Dominic Thiem