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Grigor Dimitrov’s first-round match at the US Open turned into an unexpected classic, with the Bulgarian outlasting Alex Molcan in a 6-7 (9), 6-7 (5), 6-1, 7-5, 7-6 (9) war. That was the first time Dimitrov has ever won when facing a two-set deficit, and he also saved three match points. It was incredible to watch him claw his way back in the match, but it was also a little alarming to see him struggling against a player like Molcan. And one would have to think that Dimitrov will now be exhausted when he faces Andy Murray, who was on the court for an hour and 40 minutes less in his straight-set win over Corentin Moutet. (His 200th win at the Grand Slam level.)

It could make a huge difference. Murray is a player that gives maximum effort on every single point, so he needs his tank to be as full as can be in order to beat a player like Dimitrov. Meanwhile, Dimitrov isn’t a player that has been all that trustworthy on big stages, so he’ll be in trouble if he’s anything less than 100% here.

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Grigor Dimitrov is 2-8 against Andy Murray in hard-court clashes.

Grigor Dimitrov is 2-8 against Andy Murray in hard-court clashes.

Murray is going to ask a lot of questions of Dimitrov in this match, and I’m just not sure the Bulgarian is going to have the answers. The Brit is also the player that I trust more as a server here. Murray hasn’t ever been a player with a sky-high hold percentage, but he always seems to step things up in key moments. And it almost feels like the opposite can be true of Dimitrov, who occasionally gifts his opponents breaks.

Murray also happens to be 8-3 in 11 career meetings with Dimitrov. That might not mean a lot because all the matches came before Murray had his hip surgery. But there could be a slight mental edge for the Brit in this spot, especially considering he’s 8-2 in the 10 hard-court matches they have played.

Bet: Murray To Win (+105)