US Open Best Bet: Aslan Karatsev vs. Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton benefited from Dominic Thiem coming down with an untimely illness in the second round, and it suddenly seems like a lot of people love the American’s chances of making a run in this tournament. But I think his upcoming meeting with Aslan Karatsev will be a lot tougher than expected—so much that I like the Russian as a +125 underdog.

Karatsev is ranked 77th, but he’s arguably a Top 25 talent on tour. His production just seems to come and go, but he’s running hot right now. In the opening round, Karatsev dominated world No. 29 Jiri Lehecka, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3. He then followed it up by defeating Roberto Carballes Baena, who was fresh off an upset win over Holger Rune, in straight sets. When Karatsev is going like this, there’s no telling how far he might go. This is a guy that made an unexpected run to the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2021.

Karatsev is also just a tough match-up for Shelton. The American’s biggest advantage over opponents is his booming left-handed serve, but Karatsev is one of the best returners on the planet. He’s very good at strategically flipping the script on the server by putting his returns in very difficult locations. Karatsev is also a very good server when he’s dialed in, and I can’t imagine we’ll see anything but a locked-in version of him with this much at stake.

I also think Karatsev will have the advantage along the baseline in this match. Whereas Shelton’s backhand is a huge weakness at this point in his career, Karatsev is pretty sturdy from both sides, hitting flat shots for a ton of power.

Overall, I believe Karatsev is a better player than Shelton right now. Of course, the American has a very bright future and could very well win some majors by the time his career is over. But we’re dealing with today, not tomorrow. And I think this price is a little off.

Bet: Karatsev To Win (+125)