US Open Best Bet: Ben Shelton vs. Novak Djokovic

"He's a lot like Carlos Alcaraz": Expect Ben Shelton to bring fun energy to Novak Djokovic clash

After earning a quarter-final victory over world No. 10 Frances Tiafoe, 20-year-old Ben Shelton will face 23-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic in the US Open semifinals. Finding a way to defeat Djokovic will be an incredibly difficult task for the young American, who simply doesn’t have a lot of experience in matches like these. That said, Shelton’s ability to serve is something that should keep him in any match. So I’m taking 2023’s breakout star to win a set at +130 odds.

I still can’t shake the fact that Djokovic hasn’t played his best tennis at this tournament. I know he just earned a straight-set win over Taylor Fritz, but I thought the American came out flat in that match. And I also thought Fritz played key points very poorly. Some of that has to do with Djokovic’s ability to win big points, but Fritz was going for shots he never goes for because he was panicking. A better player would have won at least a set against Djokovic on that day. And while I’m not sure Shelton is a better tennis player than Fritz, I think he has similar weapons—and doesn’t play with an ounce of fear.

Shelton will go big with his booming serve, and I expect him to follow up any spot serves by rushing to the net to complete a serve-and-volley. If that goes to plan, Shelton should force a tiebreaker or two in this match. And that’s all I’d need to feel good about this play. Djokovic has an insane tiebreaker record in his career, but I'd take my chances of Shelton stealing one.

It's also just entirely possible that Djokovic throws away a set here. He has gifted his opponents breaks throughout this tournament, and Shelton has been returning a lot better than expected. So, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that we see Shelton win a set without a tiebreaker.

Another thing to consider is that Shelton has become a legitimate superstar in New York. The crowd was somewhat muted during his win over Tiafoe, but that was because the match didn’t live up to expectations, and I think there was some conflict over who to root for. That won’t be the case here. Shelton’s electric personality will be on full display, and the fans will shower him with love as he looks to pull off one of the biggest upsets in tennis history. That should give him a little extra momentum, and it could also throw the sometimes-temperamental Djokovic off.

Pick: Shelton +2.5 Sets (+130)