US Open Best Bet: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka

WATCH: When we pegged Coco to win it all, in August...at +1400 (!)

A few weeks before the US Open began, I gave away Coco Gauff as a +1400 pick to win the tournament. (Watch above.) If you listened to that advice, you’re in a great position heading into her final-round match-up with Aryna Sabalenka. Gauff has a great shot at winning this match, with the oddsmakers more or less setting this as a pick’em. But you’re still going to want to put a sizable bet on Sabalenka just to lock in a profit.

And if you’re just looking to bet this match on its own, I’d also suggest backing the Belarusian.

Gauff has been tremendous all throughout the US Open, but nobody has looked better than Sabalenka thus far. The Australian Open champion is just out-muscling her opponents from the baseline, and she has looked rock-solid with her serve. The latter is always something to look out for with Sabalenka. She dealt with the yips for parts of two years, and those are always a threat to come back. But I haven’t seen many shaky moments from Sabalenka as a server in this tournament. In fact, I thought she was clutch with the ball on her racquet towards the end of her comeback win over Madison Keys.

Speaking of that win, I thought it was remarkable the way Sabalenka battled in that one. She looked like she was going to go down in straights, but she dug in and found a way to break Keys at 4-5 in the second set. Then, she played breathtaking tennis in every aspect of the game for the remainder of the match. The one negative you can point out is that Sabalenka’s forehand got away from her a bit towards the end of the third set. But she dialed back in with that shot in the third-set tiebreaker. And that’s ultimately where I believe she can punish Gauff.

While Gauff has made significant strides with her forehand in recent months, she reverted back to square one in her win over Karolina Muchova. She wasn’t getting much power on her forehands that landed in, and whenever she tried to hit it harder, it flew out for an unforced error. I know Gauff can be counted on to battle and rip her backhands, but I don’t see this match going her way without the forehand being the weapon it was in Cincinnati and D.C.

It's also hard to ignore that Sabalenka earned a 6-4, 6-0 win over Gauff at Indian Wells. The conditions in New York won’t be as extreme as the ones in California, but this is the same surface, and a shutout set is hard to overlook. Plus, how often do you get this good of a price on Sabalenka against anybody other than Iga Swiatek?

You're also getting Sabalenka in a situation in which all the pressure is on her opponent. The fans will be desperate for a Gauff victory, which will put added pressure on the American. Meanwhile, Sabalenka is playing with house money after being so close to an exit last match.

Bet: Sabalenka To Win (-120)