US Open Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic

Daniil Medvedev surprised a lot of people with his 7-6 (3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 win over defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open semifinals. But if you’ve been watching Tennis Bets Live, you know that we noted that Medvedev had a real shot at winning that match. In fact, I suggested throwing a little something on him at +1000 odds to win the tournament before the semifinals. Those odds were extremely disrespectful for a player that is easily the third-best hard court player on the planet. His best tennis puts him on the level of both Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic—and that’s why I’d also suggest betting him in the final.

I simply don’t think we’ve seen championship-level tennis from Djokovic throughout this event. In Cincinnati, Djokovic was bombing his forehand, taking advantage of the quicker court speeds. Without that luxury, I think he has been beatable in New York. His opponents haven’t been up for the challenge, and they have noticeably shrunk in big moments. I don’t think we’ll see that from Medvedev, who has won this tournament before—in a 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 win over this very opponent. And I think the Russian has a chip on his shoulder because of the way he has been relatively dismissed by tennis fans and media.

I also can’t shake the fact that Medvedev is one of the best returners in the world. That title might belong to Djokovic, but the Russian’s return game has been outrageous in New York so far. He should be able to give Djokovic a lot of trouble, especially with the Serbian looking a bit shaky with the ball on his racquet throughout this event. And if he can get into Djokovic’s service games, this should go Medvedev’s way. He’s unbelievably tough to break when he’s dialed in, and his serve was great against Alcaraz.

Few can grind down an opponent like Medvedev. The Russian uses his length and speed to cover the court like nobody else, and forcing opponents to hit a lot of extra shots can really make a mark. Alcaraz was hitting a bunch of tired forehands late in the semifinals, and I believe Medvedev deserves the credit for that. Djokovic, who has oddly struggled with his fitness over the last few weeks, could suffer the same fate.

Everybody on the planet was expecting a final between Alcaraz and Djokovic, and I’m sure the Serbian was getting excited about potentially winning his 24th Grand Slam title in that very matchup. But here we are, and I think Medvedev has what it takes to lift his second trophy in New York. And I love the price you’re getting, as I expect this to be a very competitive match, at the very least.

Bet: Medvedev To Win (+210)