US Open Best Bet: Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula

On Monday, tennis fans will see an All-American clash between Madison Keys and Jessica Pegula in the fourth round of the US Open. Both players had to scratch and claw to get to this point, with Liudmila Samsonova taking Keys to a deciding third set and Elina Svitolina doing the same to Pegula. Now, we’re guaranteed another American in the quarterfinals of this tournament, and I think it’ll be Keys that will end up getting there.

These two met in San Diego last season, when Pegula earned a 6-4, 7-5 victory over Keys. But Keys has been a lot better in 2023, going 31-11 so far. This is the best year that Keys has had on tour since 2016. Keys has a higher hold percentage this season, and she has also gone up from a 32.8% break percentage to 40.0%.

Keys’ improvement in the return game is part of why I like her to handle her business against Pegula. I’m not sold on Pegula as a server. She’s definitely solid with the ball on her racquet, but she’s far from overpowering. And she’s making only 59.5% of her first serves this year. If she regularly gives Keys looks at her second serve, I don’t think she’ll be able to overcome that and win.

Keys also has as much power from the baseline as anyone. She’ll be on the offensive throughout this match, whereas Pegula will be trying to redirect that power. That’s a difficult position to play in for the course of a whole match, and that also means that Pegula will need to be very good when she ultimately does decide to get aggressive. But considering Pegula’s struggles at the deep stages of Grand Slams, I just don’t trust her to come through when the margins get smaller.

All in all, it’s hard not to love Keys as a sizable underdog in this match. She’s a player that tends to rise to the occasion in big moments, and it feels like a run to the final is possible.

Bet: Keys ML (+155)