US Open Best Bet: Madison Keys vs. Marketa Vondrousova

Madison Keys is coming off one of the best performances of her career, as she throttled world No. 3 Jessica Pegula, 6-1, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the US Open. Keys will now face Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova in the quarterfinals, and I like the American to find a way through to the semis.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that it’s not impressive that Vondrousova has made it to this point in the tournament. It absolutely is. But I haven’t been blown away by the lefty’s form in recent weeks, and she has undoubtedly had a fortunate draw in New York. The best player that Vondrousova has beaten thus far has been Ekaterina Alexandrova. Meanwhile, not only did Keys beat Pegula, but she also earned a comeback win over Liudmila Samsonova. Samsonova has the sixth-highest hard-court Elo rating in the women’s game, so that was an impressive performance.

What this match boils down to for me is that the weight of Keys’ shots could be too much for Vondrousova—as long as the American isn’t spraying unforced errors all over the court. And to this point in the tournament, Keys has been accurate and lethal with her groundstrokes.

The humidity at Arthur Ashe Stadium is making these courts play a lot slower than they are, so Keys will have time to track balls down, set her feet and let it rip. That’s going to be a problem for Vondrousova, who has complained about elbow pain from how hard she is having to swing to generate power. Keys does that naturally, and I think that’ll be a big X-factor in this match.

I also can’t say enough good things about the work Keys is doing as a returner this year. She broke Pegula five times in her straight-set win over the Montreal champion, and she now has the 11th-highest break percentage on tour. When you combine that with her ability to blast serves when the ball is on her racquet, Keys is arguably playing some of the best tennis of his career.

Bet: Keys To Win (-130)