US Open Best Bet: Taylor Fritz vs. Novak Djokovic

On Tuesday, Taylor Fritz will play arguably the biggest match of his entire career. The 25-year-old has a date with Novak Djokovic, with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the US Open. Fritz has never made it further than the quarterfinals of a major, so the pressure will be on here. And while I’m not quite sure the American has what it takes to win outright, I do think we’ll get a big performance from him. With that in mind, I’m taking Fritz to win a set at -140 odds.

Fritz and Djokovic recently met in Cincinnati, where the 23-time Grand Slam champion came away with a 6-0, 6-4 win. Djokovic went on to win that tournament, beating defending US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz in an all-time classic in the final. But Fritz wasn’t as bad as the score suggests in their quarter-final matchup. In fact, Fritz was up a break on Djokovic in the second set. If Fritz brought his B+ game to that match, rather than a C or D effort, he likely would have forced a decider. But it wasn’t meant to be on that day, which is why Djokovic is such a heavy favorite here.

The reality is that if Fritz shows up and doesn’t let his nerves get the best of him, he should present a lot of problems for Djokovic. The 36-year-old doesn’t struggle against most types of players, but big servers that can also do some damage from the baseline have given him trouble in the past. We saw Hubert Hurkacz put up a great effort against Djokovic at Wimbledon, but he wasn’t able to get the job done in the two tiebreakers they played. Fritz isn’t quite as good of a server as Hurkacz is, but he’s still one of the best servers on tour. So, the American does have it in him to force some tiebreakers, at least. And I’d expect him to win at least one if we do see them.

It's also hard to ignore that Djokovic hasn’t been at his absolute best in this tournament. Djokovic looked all out of sorts when he went down two sets against fellow countryman Laslo Djere two matches ago. And I thought his performance against Borna Gojo in the Round of 16 left a lot to be desired. That has to give Fritz some confidence heading into this match. He has seen that Djokovic is human, with lesser players putting in solid efforts against the three-time US Open champion.

Fritz has pushed Djokovic at a major before. At the 2021 Australian Open, he forced Djokovic to a fifth set. If he can take two sets off Djokovic on an outdoor hard court, why can’t he do half of that in a similar environment—especially one that should be able to give him some extra adrenaline.

Bet: Fritz +2.5 Sets (-140)