Three to See, US Open Day 3: Previewing Fritz vs. Berrettini, Ruud vs. Monfils, Gauff vs. Maria

Taylor Fritz vs. Matteo Berrettini

This may be the most eye-popping second-round match in either draw. Fritz is the seed, but Berrettini is the guy who has made the semifinals or better at three of the four majors.

Fritz understands what he, and everyone watching, are in for.

“It’s going to be a lot of serving, and a lot of holding,” the American said on Monday.

While Berrettini can cite a better record at the Slams, Fritz can counter with a perfect record in their head-to-head. He’s 3-0 against the Italian, and all of those matches were played on hard courts. Two of them were also tight, as you would expect from a pair of serve machines.

“It’s small margins when there’s two people with big games playing each other,” Fritz says.

👉 Matteo Berrettini at US Open: “I feel ready” to end losing streak against Taylor Fritz

Berrettini is one of the biggest question marks in tennis at the moment. On the one hand, he has been on and off the tour with injuries for years, and hasn’t made it past the fourth round at a Slam since 2022. On the other, he has won three titles this year, all on clay.

If you want to measure this match-up by their ceilings, history says Berrettini, with his all-court athleticism, has the higher one. If you want to measure it by week-to-week consistency, Fritz should be the favorite. I’ll take the more consistent player with the head-to-head edge, at home. Winner: Fritz

Casper Ruud vs. Gael Monfils

This match should offer a good example of how much spin means in the modern game. Ruud and Monfils love their topspin, and they use it in different ways. The Norwegian drives through his forehand with it, to create a powerfully heavy shot in the mode of his friend Rafael Nadal. The Frenchman can do that as well, but he’ll also vary the height and speed of his shot-making from one ball to the next. He seems to get bored playing one way for too long.

They’ve met twice, and each has won once. The more relevant of those matches happened this spring in Indian Wells, where Ruud came back to win in three close sets. We basically know what we’re going to get from the steady, practical, powerful Ruud, which means the result of this match will lie on Monfils’ racquet, and depend on first serve and his frame of mind. In Cincinnati, the 37-year-old turned himself into a wily veteran, when he used his serve and a variety of spins to sneak past—and enrage—Carlos Alcaraz.

In New York, though, I think the best-of-five format ultimately favors the steadier competitor. Winner: Ruud

Coco Gauff vs. Tatjana Maria

Nerves were jangling among U.S. tennis fans when Gauff, mired in a summer-long slump, walked into Arthur Ashe Stadium on Monday to defend her title. The only person who wasn’t worried about her form may have been Gauff.

“I wasn’t surprised about my level because I was practicing really well this week,” she said. “It was a really good practice week. So honestly, I was just telling myself that I’m ready.”

After a couple of early glitches, Gauff did look ready to go in her 6-2, 6-0 win over Varvara Gracheva. She said that two weeks ago in Cincinnati, she was missing shots that she could normally make “with my eyes closed.” By Monday, order in her game had been restored.

“I was like, ‘OK, I know when the ball’s going where I want it to go,” she said. “So I feel good.”

⤴️ WATCH: Was Coco Gauff's early loss in Cincinnati a blessing in disguise?

Are her troubles permanently behind her? Probably not. Six more wins without another off day, or s surprise challenge from an opponent, would be a lot to ask.

It’s hard to say whether Maria can offer that challenge. She’s 37, ranked 99th, and has never been higher than 42nd. Her career record at the Open is 4-10, and before Monday she hadn’t won a match in New York since 2018. She lost her only encounter with Gauff, on hard courts, in straight sets last year.

Maria does, however, have the capacity to disrupt. She uses as much slice as anyone around, both with her forehand and her unorthodox one-handed backhand. She likes to defend, but she had enough all-court game and hand skills at net to make the semifinals at Wimbledon in 2022.

While Gauff will be able to attack Maria on these fairly fast courts, the German’s low-trajectory slice may force the American to play a little more cautiously, at least until she gets a lead. If Coco is in anything like the same form she was in for her first match, it shouldn’t be a problem. Winner: Gauff