US Open Final Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev

The great thing about tennis is that there’s always another match. The terrible thing about tennis is that there’s always another match.

Just ask Daniil Medvedev. On Friday he put on one of the best performances of his career—a “12 out of 10” in his now-famous assessment—to beat the No. 1 player in the world, Carlos Alcaraz. But on Sunday he may have to play even better to beat the No. 2 player in the world, Novak Djokovic, who also happens to be a 23-time Grand Slam champion.

Medvedev knows the drill well.

“For the confidence and self-esteem, it’s very important,” Medvedev said of his win over Alcaraz. “At the same time, that’s the thing about tennis, it’s great that I won this match, but if I lose on Sunday, it’s like it’s a good tournament but I’m going to be hell disappointed. That’s how tennis is.”

What are the chances Medvedev avoids disappointment and backs up his win over Alcaraz with one over Djokovic? Will the momentum from one victory carry him to another, or will he have a letdown after surmounting the Alcaraz mountain?

Djokovic leads their head to head 9-5. He won their first three meetings, when Medvedev wasn’t yet a Top 10 player, and he won four straight over the Russian from late 2021 to early 2023. They’re 1-1 in Grand Slam finals; Djokovic won in straight sets in the Australian Open final in 2021, and Medvedev also won in straight sets at the US Open that same year. So far in 2023, they’ve split their two matches. All in all, Djokovic has an edge, but Medvedev is more than capable of beating him any time they play. He’s done it often enough that he knows how Djokovic reacts to a loss.

“Novak, when he loses, he’s never the same after. So he’s different. It’s just a different mentality,” Medvedev said. “So I have to use it knowing that he’s going to be 10 times better than he was that day. And I have to be, if I want to still beat him, 10 times better than I was that day. That’s what I'm going to try to do.”

Djokovic says he’s happy with his tennis since the start of Cincinnati. He won that tournament, beating Alcaraz in the final, and he’s only had one hiccup in New York so far, when he went down two sets to love against his countryman Laslo Djere. As for Medvedev, he says he found his best level in the early rounds at the Open, and that the speedier hard courts here give him confidence to be more aggressive, especially with his forehand. Both guys are obviously in form, and neither should be physically exhausted on Sunday, the way Djokovic was when they met here in 2021.

After losing that final, Djokovic turned his rivalry with Medvedev around by serving and volleying more, and taking advantage of Medvedev’s deep court position. If he watched Alcaraz’s attempts to do the same thing on Friday, though, Djokovic may think twice about charging in after his serve. Alcaraz was successful at net overall, but Medvedev came up with brilliant returns on key points to break the Spaniard’s serve in the fourth set.

Medvedev may be the hotter player at the moment. But Djokovic is still the more reliable winner and match manager. And, like Medvedev said, he has a way of getting back at guys who beat him. I picked the Serb at the start of the tournament, and I’ll pick him again today. Winner: Djokovic