US Open Men's Final Preview: Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud look to summit major mountain with No. 1 in play

We knew from their play over the last 12 months that these two were ready for big things. But No. 1 in the world? Wasn’t Daniil Medvedev the heir to that throne? After 20 years of stasis at the top of the men’s game, it’s a little jarring to have everything suddenly in flux. As of two weeks ago, Alcaraz was No. 4 and Ruud No. 7. By Monday, whoever wins this match will be the ATP’s new No. 1.

Ruud, for one, likes the idea.

“I think what’s most fair is if we both reach the final and whoever wins the final reaches the world No. 1,” Ruud said on Friday, before he knew that he would be playing Alcaraz. “That would be I think the ideal situation.”

It may be an ideal situation, but Alcaraz doesn’t seem like an ideal opponent, for Ruud or anyone else. These two have played twice, on clay in Spain last year, and on hard courts in the Miami final this year. Both times Alcaraz has won in straight sets. My main memory of the Miami match is that after a strong first set, Ruud began to look resigned to his fate in the second. Alcaraz was in the middle of a sensational streak at that moment, and the hype surrounding him seemed to have seeped into Ruud’s mind. He faded away pretty quickly in the second set.

Six months later, Alcaraz is in the middle of another sensational streak. He’s coming off three straight spectacular wins, all of which went five sets and all of which ended after midnight. The 20-odd hours he has put in at the Open so far hasn’t slowed him down yet, so it seems doubtful that it will be a factor on Sunday. If anything, Alcaraz is hitting harder, running faster, and drawing more gasps from fans with each passing round. Ruud described Alcaraz as a player who “can bring up unbelievable points and rallies.”

“So I have to be prepared for everything.”

As crowd-pleasing as the Carlitos Show has been, he hasn’t made life easy for himself. Alcaraz goes for a lot, all the time, and that leads to errors and overambitious shot attempts. He also isn’t immune to nerves, or to giving back leads. So even if Alcaraz looks like the clearly superior player for much of this match, there’s no guarantee he’ll close it out efficiently. By the start of the fourth set of his quarterfinal against Tiafoe, Alcaraz looked unstoppable, but he ended up losing that set.

What does this mean for Ruud? He has two weapons, his serve and his forehand, and he’ll need to make the most of them. But more than anything else, he’ll need to remember, even if Alcaraz’s shots are blowing by him at 100 m.p.h., that the kid does get tight, he does make mistakes, he doesn’t always have the most sensible shot selection, and he gets as nervous with a lead as anyone else. Ruud has the advantage of having played a Grand Slam final before. The fact that he lost it, to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros this year, should motivate him to do whatever he can not to make it two defeats in a row. Fairly or not, a reputation as a terminal runner-up at the majors can start quickly, and be hard to shake.

As for Alcaraz, he admitted he’ll have to get over the nerves that come with his first Slam final. Then he’ll want to remember what has become his mantra:

“I’m going to do the same, that is going for it,” Alcaraz said as he looked forward to this match. “No matter what I’m fighting for or what I am, I’m just going for it and enjoy the moment.”

That should, after a few twists and turns, rocket forehand and jaw-dropping gets, be enough. Winner: Alcaraz