Three to See, US Open Day 1: Can Dominic Thiem turn back the clock against Ben Shelton?

Ben Shelton vs. Dominic Thiem

Talk about a match that will bring back bad memories. Thiem played Shelton in the second round of the Open last year, and after vomiting before walking on court, and looking uncomfortable on it, he retired after losing the first set in a tiebreaker. Now he’ll see the same opponent across the net, one round earlier.

The Austrian’s career hasn’t gone much better over the last 12 months than it did that day. He’s 2-7 in 2024, and ranked 209th. By the spring, he had had enough, and announced that he would retire at the end of the season. Since winning his only Grand Slam title at the US Open in pandemic-peak 2020, Thiem has endured a long decline, brought about by burnout and an injured wrist. Once an heir to the Big Three, he’ll be off the tour at age 31.

Can he give New Yorkers a final reminder of his best tennis before he goes? Thiem might normally be the sentimental favorite in New York at a time like this, if he weren’t playing an American. Instead, it will be Shelton, a big-stage hog, who should be pumped up by the crowd in Arthur Ashe Stadium for this opening day-session match. The Floridian also knows he has semifinal points to defend from last year.

More important, Shelton has had a solid summer, making the semifinals in D.C. and the quarterfinals in Cincinnati. If the courts are as quick as we’ve heard, his 140-m.p.h. serve might look even more lethal to his opponents. Including Thiem: His one-handed backhand is a nice thing to watch, but it’s not ideal for returning rocket lefty serves. Winner: Shelton

Zheng Qinwen vs. Amanda Anisimova

Louis Armstrong Stadium will start with an 11 A.M. banger, between two sneaky-young power hitters who are coming off strong runs this summer. Zheng, 21, won Olympic gold in Paris, while Anisimova, 22, revived her seemingly moribund career by making the finals at the WTA 1000 event in Montreal. Each woman knocked off one of the Top 2 along the way: Zheng beat Iga Swiatek in Paris; Anisimova beat Aryna Sabalenka in Canada.

The two have never faced each other, but their rallies likely won’t be dull. Anisimova is 5’11” and has always had some of the easiest power of anyone in tennis. Zheng is 5’10”, and while she plays with a little more spin and margin, she hits a heavy ball and likes to dictate the points.

Which means this match may be won and lost in the mind. Both will be nervous for a first-round contest; no one wants their US Open to end two hours into the tournament. The question is, who will handle the tension better? Both have played well lately, but both are known to be streaky. Anisimova may have the higher ceiling if she’s on, but Zheng is ranked higher now for a reason. Winner: Zheng

Holger Rune vs. Brandon Nakashima

Court 17 should be a popular destination in the late afternoon, when the 23-year-old American and the 21-year-old Dane are scheduled to face off. Rune is higher-ranked—No. 15 to No. 48—and already more accomplished, despite being two years younger. But is he favored?

Nakashima has won both of their previous matches, including a 6-0, 6-2 rout on hard courts at the Shanghai Masters last fall. The California native has also had a very good August, recording wins over Denis Shapovalov, Arthur Fils and two higher-ranked countrymen, Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz.

Rune and Naksahima like their two-handed backhands, and lean on them every bit as much as their forehands. Rune has shown more talent and more aggression so far in his career, but Nakashima is the much calmer presence. Might that make a difference in a rowdy, pro-American environment, where the fans are right on top of the players? Winner: Nakashima