Can Jessica Pegula harness home crowd to topple favorite Aryna Sabalenka? | US Open women’s final preview

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

Form held on the women’s side at Flushing Meadows this year. Sabalenka and Pegula aren’t the top two seeds, but they were the two sharpest players coming into the tournament. They met in the final of the Open tune-up in Cincinnati, and now they’re meeting again in the Open final itself.

Sabalenka won in Cincy 6-3, 7-5, despite a late push from Pegula. She also leads their head-to-head 5-2, and she’ll be playing her fourth Grand Slam final, while Pegula will be making her debut in that round. Add in the fact that she’s dropped just one set during her current, 11-match win streak, and Sabalenka is a solid, if not heavy, favorite.

“Obviously she’s a really great hard court player, if not one of the best in the world,” Pegula says of Sabalenka, who is 2-0 in Australian Open finals, and has reached the semifinals or better for four straight years in New York.

But…there are reasons to like Pegula as well, starting with the fact that she seems bullish on herself, as she should after having such a successful summer, and after playing so flawlessly over the final two sets of her comeback semifinal win against Karolina Muchova.

“I think I’m also a really good hard court player,” Pegula says. “Cincinnati, she served unbelievable, and I felt like I still had chances in that match.

“I think I know that I can have a game that can possibly frustrate her. I feel like in the past I just have to be aggressive, I have to get her moving, serve smart, and try and put some pressure on her serve.”

Sabalenka thrives on a fast court because of her ability to throw knockout punches over the over. She has the edge in power over just about everyone. But Pegula thrives on these courts because of her ability to counter-punch, to hit flat and deep and redirect the ball from corner to corner.

I have to get her moving, serve smart, and try and put some pressure on her serve. —Jessica Pegula

One key may be the Pegula return. Can she use it to turn Sabalenka’s pace against her, and rattle her into double faults? In the semifinals, Pegula’s countrywoman, Emma Navarro, was able to do that to Sabalenka at times. If Pegula can stay in the same error-free groove she was in against Muchova, she’ll be tough to beat, even for the WTA’s No. 2. In her one previous meeting with Sabalenka on these courts, during the Western & Southern Open in pandemic 2020, Pegula won in three sets.

This match will also be played in the head, of course—Sabalenka’s head in particular. She has more experience on this stage, but is it the right kind of experience? She lost in the final here last year to another American, Coco Gauff; the crowd was so loud, and so in favor of Gauff, that Sabalenka said it “blocked my ears” and led to her error-filled meltdown in the third set. But Sabalenka also faced a pro-American audience in her semi against Navarro on Thursday, and she held up much better.

This match could teeter on a knife’s edge, and on the state of Sabalenka’s nerves. But she’s been the favorite since the start of this tournament for a reason. Winner: Sabalenka