US Open Women's Semifinal Previews: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Navarro, Jessica Pegula vs. Karolina Muchova

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Navarro

In most ways, Sabalenka is the favorite. She’s the bigger, stronger, more explosive player. She’s higher-ranked and more experienced. She’s won two Australian Open titles and made the semifinals or better in New York the last three years. She’s very much in form, too, after her title run in Cincinnati and largely straightforward trip through her first five matches at the Open.

It’s true that Sabalenka and Navarro have split their two previous meetings. But Navarro’s win came in three sets on a slow hard court at Indian Wells, and Sabalenka’s revenge came in straight sets at Roland Garros. This time, they’ll play on a fast surface that should, on balance, favor Sabalenka.

Still, Navarro may have the advantage in one way, and it’s a sign of her competitive intelligence that she has pinpointed it.

“I feel like, I don’t know, she might feel like she has something to lose, whereas I feel like I have everything to go after,” the American said on Tuesday. “That’s something that I work on a lot, trying to put myself in a position to go after something, no matter the match or the opponent.”

Navarro is right: Sabalenka will likely feel as if she’s supposed to win. That’s usually not a problem for her, but it may have contributed to her meltdown in the US Open final last year to Coco Gauff. And Navarro, with her consistency, ability to counterpunch, and emotional control, is a player who can make the most of an opponent’s nerves. She also shouldn’t feel any pressure compared to her opponent, at least to start.

Navarro has established herself as a Grand Slam threat. And the Ashe crowd could help her, and rattle Sabalenka, the way it did last year in the final. But I’m not quite ready to make the American the favorite. Winner: Sabalenka

Jessica Pegula vs. Karolina Muchova

Muchova’s opponents tends to be fans of her game. It was her true of her last foe, Jasmine Paolini, and it’s true of Pegula, too.

“I think she’s so good, so talented, so skilled as a tennis player, like, so complete,” Pegula says of the smooth-hitting Czech. “It's cool to kind of see her back, because I think she's really great for the game and the way she plays is really fun.”

Each woman has been deep into Slams, and each has made a meteoric comeback after being injured early in the season. After several years on tour together, they finally faced off last month in Cincinnati. Pegula won in three close sets, and went on to make the final.

Muchova, for her part, described the court they met on in Cincy as a “parking lot,” where it was “tough to play.” But she also admitted that Pegula is “on fire” right now, and she “didn’t give me one point for free.”

It can be tough to call a Grand Slam semifinal, because both players are, by definition, playing well. That’s certainly true in this case. Neither of them has dropped a set, and each has defeated a Slam champ along the way: Muchova beat Naomi Osaka; Pegula took out Iga Swiatek.

This match should offer a pleasing contrast, where one player is providing the rock-solid consistency, and the other the varied shotmaking. Going by her win over Muchova in Cincy, her win over Swiatek on Wednesday, her month-long run of victories and the fan support she’ll receive, I’ll take Pegula. Winner: Pegula