US Open women’s preview: Aryna Sabalenka surging, defending champ Coco Gauff swooning

The women’s 2024 season has had three very different phases so far. There was Aryna Sabalenka’s fast start in Australia. There was Iga Swiatek’s counterattack on clay in the spring. And there was a wild-west month or so, when Swiatek left her beloved dirt and Sabalenka got hurt.

Will the year’s final Slam bring us something new, or a return to co-dominance by Iga and Aryna? The draw is out; here are five takeaways from it at the final major of 2024.

👉 READ: Men's US Open preview, and our Expert Picks

1. Sabalenka has reestablished herself as a—and possibly the—favorite

What a difference a week in tennis makes, especially if it happens in Cincinnati.

After defending her Australian Open title and looking like the most ominous force coming into the year, Sabalenka…didn’t win another tournament. Sometimes she lost in head-scratching upsets. Sometimes she lost in epics. Sometimes, as at Wimbledon and the Olympics, she didn’t play at all.

Finally, the fast courts in Cincinnati, where she had been a semifinalist three times before, loomed in front of her. After an early adjustment to the pace, she made the most of them. She didn’t drop a set on those courts, and beat Swiatek along the way.

Now Sabalenka will head to New York, where she reached the final last year, and where the courts are said to be as speedy as she likes them.

2. The defending champion, Coco Gauff, is in a summer swoon

Last summer we witnessed the honeymoon period between Gauff and new coach Brad Gilbert. It took her from one of her low points at Wimbledon to a Grand Slam title in the space of two months.

This summer we’ve seen their sophomore slump. Gauff was drummed out of Wimbledon in the fourth round by Emma Navarro; she lost her composure in a defeat to Donna Vekic at the Olympics; she looked even worse in a loss to Diana Shnaider in Toronto; and she blew a third-set lead to Yulia Putintseva in the first round in Cincinnati.

Right now it seems as if Gauff’s attempts to get more aggressive with her forehand have left her confused about her tactics, not playing to her strengths, and without any of the bedrock confidence she gained last year. The one piece of good news may be that she isn’t on the same side of the draw as her nemesis, Swiatek.

3. Who has a tough road ahead, and who has an easy one?

Swiatek can’t be displeased with her draw, which may go like this: Qualifier/Saville/Pavlyuchenkova/Samsonova or Andreeva/Pegula. While Pavlyuchenkova is a hard hitter who might thrive on these courts, only 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who pushed Swiatek for three hours in Cincinnati, looks like a serious threat to the world No. 1 on paper.

What can we make of Elena Rybakina’s chances? The No. 4 seed has become the tour’s vanishing woman of late, missing tournaments with illnesses and now, apparently, missing practice sessions at the Open. If she’s healthy and in the right frame of mind, though, she can be a threat on any speedy court. Her draw could be manageable: Qualifier/Mertens/Garcia/Kalinskaya/Paolini or Ostapenko.

Gauff could use a little help working her way into this tournament; if she doesn’t, she’ll lose a lot of ranking points afterward. But she might not like what the draw gods have given her: Gracheva/Tatjana Maria/Svitolina/Navarro/Krejcikova or Sakkari, or Badosa. Svitolina and Navarro could be tough first-week outs.

Sabalenka shouldn’t have trouble in the early going, but there are a few possible landmines later, including Madison Keys in the fourth round, and either Zheng Qinwen or Donna Vekic in the quarters.

4. Who are the dark horses, and what are the early-round matches to watch?

As far as dark-horse picks go, we can start where we left off in the last section, with Zheng. The 21-year-old is still up and down from week to week, but she’s also an Olympic gold medalist and an Australian Open finalist, and her rise began in earnest with her trip to the quarterfinals at the US Open last year. Still, she’ll need to get past Montreal finalist Amanda Anisimova in her opener.

Danielle Collins will say good-bye to US Open fans, but her farewell could go on for a bit. While the 11th seed is in Swiatek’s section, she wouldn’t meet her until the quarterfinals.

Jessica Pegula may be the most in-form player in the draw, after Sabalenka. She’s coming off a title run in Montreal and a runner-up finish in Cincinnati. She, too, is in Swiatek’s section, but also couldn’t play her until the quarters.

Paula Badosa and Mirra Andreeva have also been sharp this summer, and each has plenty of room to improve.

Finally, how about two-time Open champ Naomi Osaka? Nothing about her record this year says she’ll do much in New York, and her first-round opponent, Ostapenko, could end her campaign early. But Osaka does love Arthur Ashe Stadium, and if she can win her opener and build a little momentum, she has a path.

First-round matches to watch:

• Camilia Osorio vs. Mirra Andreeva
• Sofia Kenin vs. Emma Raducanu
• Pegula vs. Shelby Rogers
• Ostapenko vs. Osaka
• Jasmine Paolini vs. Bianca Andreescu
• Zheng vs. Anisimova

5. Who is going to win?

Semifinals: Swiatek d. Ostapenko; Sabalenka d. Zheng

Final: Sabalenka d. Swiatek