Entering this year’s tournament, the history of the Roger Federer/Rafael Nadal rivalry seemed to suggest that the only way Federer would claim a French Open title would be by going through Nadal at the end. But thanks to a surreal plot twist, Federer won’t need to defeat his buddy-adversary Sunday to capture the Coupe des Mousquetaires and complete the career Grand Slam. Rather, he can achieve the feat by besting unheralded gunslinger Robin Soderling, this year’s tournament Cinderella.
Federer v. Soderling is a final no one saw coming. The popular pre-tournament pick was Nadal against Novak Djokovic; when the Serb was eliminated in the third round, another Federer-Nadal encounter seemed likely. Though the 13-time major champ had failed to beat Nadal in the last three Roland Garros finals, Roger-Rafa at a Slam always has the potential for incredible theater. Fans still wanted to see how it would play out this year, especially considering Federer’s recent win over Nadal on clay in Madrid.
Four years ago, before their rivalry had developed into what it is today, fans also hoped to see these two meet on the final Sunday in Paris. Federer had established himself as the world’s best player; Nadal was the young upstart on a tear. But because Nadal (then the No. 4 seed) was slotted in Federer’s half of the draw, they would be unable to provide these dramatics. Federer and Nadal collided in the semifinals, and the tournament ended with an anticlimactic final between Nadal and unseeded dirtballer Mariano Puerta.
Beyond acting as spoilers, Puerta and Soderling have another similarity—neither is particularly beloved by tennis fans. In 2006, Puerta received an eight-year doping ban (later reduced to two on appeal) after testing positive for steroids. He’s scarcely been heard from since and currently competes in the Challenger circuit. Soderling, meanwhile, has hardly endeared himself to fans with his on-court antics; the most notorious incident came at Wimbledon in 2007, when he mocked Nadal by imitating his knicker-picking habit. Soderling’s brutish style of play has also been a tough sell to tennis enthusiasts.
In 2005, Nadal, fresh off wins at Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome, was the heavy favorite to beat Puerta in the French Open final. But the Argentine put the lefty wunderkind to the test. Known primarily as a grinder, Puerta let loose and went for his shots, taking the first set in a tiebreaker. Nadal would win the match in four sets, but it was not without some struggle (the fourth set ended 7-5).
Expect Federer to run into the same kind of resistance Sunday against Soderling. The Swede has nothing to lose and is playing fearless tennis, which should be good enough to earn him a set or two. But like Nadal in 2005, Federer should be able to withstand this barrage and seal victory in the end. It was time for Nadal to bag his first French title then, and it’s Federer’s time to do the same now.
Ed McGrogan is an assistant editor at TENNIS.com.