Like a 12 seed upsetting a 5 in the NCAA basketball tournament, a low men’s seed making a run deep into the second week of the Australian Open is a sports phenomenon that seems to happen every year. In 2006, unseeded Marcos Baghdatis defeated Andy Roddick (the No. 2 seed), Ivan Ljubicic (No. 4), and David Nalbandian (No. 7) on his way to the final. In 2007, Fernando Gonzalez, known more for his go-for-broke shots than for going deep in majors, also reached the final. And last year, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga became the latest surprise finalist in Oz after the unseeded Frenchman upset four seeded opponents.
This year’s bracket-buster is Fernando Verdasco, a 25-year-old Spanish southpaw who had never advanced past the fourth round of a Grand Slam tournament before this week. On Friday, he’ll compete against fellow countryman and lefty Nadal for a spot in the Aussie Open final.
Looking back, there may have been some signals of Verdasco’s potential. He won the deciding rubber in Spain’s upset of Argentina in the Davis Cup final last November; he reached the final of a tune-up tournament in Brisbane earlier this month; and he spent part of the off-season in intense training with Gil Reyes, former drill sergeant to Andre Agassi.
Nevertheless, few prognosticators gave Verdasco much of a chance in his fourth-round match against Andy Murray, one of the pre-tournament favorites. Verdasco went out and handed Murray his first loss of the year. Then in the quarterfinals, Verdasco defeated Tsonga, the No. 5 seed, in four sets with bludgeoning ground strokes and steely resolve.
Many people expect Verdasco’s Cinderella run to come to an abrupt end against Nadal, and it’s easy to see why. Rafa is the only men’s semifinalist who hasn’t lost a set Down Under, and he looks as comfortable on a hard court as he ever has in his career. More ominous: Verdasco has never beaten Nadal; he’s taken just one set off his friend in six matches.
So what are Verdasco’s chances? I’m guessing most people would give Verdasco less than a 25 percent chance to win—roughly the percentage of respondents who, in a recent TENNIS.com poll, picked newly svelte Andy Roddick to beat Roger Federer in their semifinal. I expect a Verdasco-versus-Nadal poll would be at least that skewed in favor of the No. 1.
Knocking off Nadal is a tall order for Verdasco, but I give him a better chance than 25 percent. In fact, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Verdasco won – not just his semifinal, but the title as well.
At this stage of the competition, I don’t think anyone is playing better than Verdasco. Granted, Federer toasted Juan Martin Del Potro with two bagel sets and handled Roddick in straights, and Nadal hasn’t lost a set so far. But Verdasco has beaten the strongest opponents en route to the semifinals, and has impressed me the most with his play. His ground strokes are accurate and penetrating, pinning his opponents to the baseline and moving them around. Verdasco’s two-handed backhand has become noticeably flatter, and is more of a weapon than ever before. And he is serving well too, mixing 130+ mile-per-hour strikes up the middle with slices out wide.
Nadal has all of those attributes as well. The two Spaniards aren’t equals, but they have similar styles of play. For my money, I think Verdasco is hitting the ball better than Nadal is right now, though it’s hard to know if the No. 14 seed’s game will stand up when he is standing across the net from the world No. 1 in a Grand Slam semifinal.
I give Nadal the edge in this match, but I think Verdasco has a chance, especially if he’s able to dictate action like he did in earlier rounds. If you don’t think Nadal is vulnerable at this stage, consider last year’s Aussie Open semifinals, in which he was upset by Tsonga in straight sets. And if Verdasco is able to knock off the top seed, I could certainly see him hoisting the championship trophy. Remember Thomas Johansson, circa 2002? If Verdasco could beat Nadal here, he could beat anyone on Sunday.