But are things really that different from where we were this time last season? The buzz says yes, the stats suggest otherwise. Comparing Federer's, Nadal's, and Djokovic's results in 2008 against their performances in 2007, you realize that not much has changed.
Federer¹s record this year is 22-6 with 1 title; last year he was 19-4 with two titles (granted, one of them was the Australian Open). Nadal is 32-7 with two titles; last season he was 33-5 with four titles. Djokovic is 25-5 with three titles; last season he was 32-7 with three titles.
It’s interesting to note that Djokovic, considered the hottest player on the tour, has virtually the same winning percentage this season, at 83 percent, as he did this time last year, when he’d won 82 percent of his matches. Federer’s winning percentage has only dropped from 83 percent in 2007 to its current 79 percent. Nadal has seen the biggest drop in winning percentages year-on-year, going from 87 percent to 82 percent. It’s significant, particularly given that he's won two fewer titles, though this hardly suggests a seismic shift in the balance of power.
Two other players who’ve gotten a lot of attention this season are Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko. Through Rome, Roddick is 24-5 with two titles; over the same time frame last year, he was 20-6 without any tournament victories. Davydenko is 28-8 with one title compared to 20-8 and no hardware last year. Roddick has improved his winning percentage 8 points, from 77 to 83 percent, while Davydenko has seen his results go up 6 points, from 71 to 78 percent.
Clearly, it doesn’t take much in the top flight of men's tennis to create the impression that the established order is crumbling. A couple losses here, a couple wins there, and there's talk about slumps and surges that seems a bit premature. Only just, though. The next few weeks, with the French and Wimbledon looming, will be critical. As the statistics demonstrate, it won't take much for Nadal and Federer to fortify their spots. It also won't take much to turn their 2008 campaigns into disappointments.
First up, Paris. Based on the current form, confidence, and health of the game¹s big three, Roland Garros will be the most open French Open in recent memory. Wimbledon could be much the same.
Federer and Nadal must deal with the pressure that their stranglehold on the top 2 spots will end based not on a season-long slide (again, their performances have been, year-to-year, virtually identical) but by an odd upset or two.
It’s often said that tennis is a game of inches. Who knew that establishing the game’s pecking order operated under such fine margins, too?
