Wanted: Man With A Plan

Does it ever get old?

I’m talking about a clash between world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and No. 2 designate Roger Federer (he will officially surpass Rafael Nadal for the second spot when the new ATP rankings are issued on Monday). Federer and Nadal may be have produced the most historic of rivalries since the one between Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi, but the competition between Djokovic and Federer is less predictable, more subtle — and obviously a lot closer.

Federer and Djokovic will meet in the semifinals of the Shanghai Masters tomorrow with Federer ahead by a single match, 18-17. Given that Federer is already 33 years old (Djokovic is just 27) it’s hard to imagine Djokovic ever building the kind of margin Nadal already enjoys over Federer (23-10). That shopworn line by Mats Wilander, “How can a guy be the greatest of all time if there’s a guy in his own time whom he can’t beat?” will most likely haunt Federer for the rest of his days. It’s a different story with Djokovic.

The most noteworthy element in the rivalry that will be rejoined tomorrow is that the men are 2-2 so far this year. Neither player has won more than three consecutive matches since Djokovic broke Federer’s early domination after taking four successive losses to open the rivalry. That was way back in 2007, and those who would plead that Djokovic’s youth now gives him an advantage that might end up skewing the rivalry must also acknowledge that Federer’s greater maturity in those early years gave him a great head start. Credit Djokovic with having overcome it.

If you’re wondering which single surface allows Federer to still hold the lead, prepare to be surprised. It comes down to Federer’s 4-3 lead on clay. The men have split the only two matches they’ve played on grass, and on hard courts they’re also in a dead heat, 13-13.

There’s one main reason that these matches are so close. Unlike those wars of attrition played out between Djokovic and Nadal (Nadal leads that rivalry, 23-19), or the frustratingly predictable battles between Federer and Nadal, these clashes put a higher premium on placement and execution than on consistency and stamina. I think one of the main reasons Federer has proven problematic for Djokovic, especially lately, is that Federer can take away Djokovic’s superb defense with his own high-powered offense, and Djokovic doesn’t have the deadly advantages that the lefty Nadal can bring to bear against Federer.

This upcoming match is a difficult one to call. Djokovic has bulled his way through the draw with nary a glitch; the only set he’s lost thus far at Shanghai was in the third round to Mikhail Kukushkin. It’s pertinent to this discussion because while Kukushkin is ranked No. 85, he plays an aggressive game and has no reluctance to attack.

By contrast, Djokovic’s rival today was the considerably more accomplished world No. 5, David Ferrer. But Ferrer plays a defense-orientated game, and partly because of that he got just six games in two sets off Djokovic. Well, you can’t read too much into the contrast between two results at one event, but it does point toward a basic truth about the rivalry under discussion.

Federer has had a tougher time of it at this tournament. He had to stare down five match points in his second-round clash with Leonardo Mayer. Sometimes, so close an escape leaves a player feeling 10-feet tall and bulletproof. In his next match, against Roberto Bautista Agut, Federer won 22 of 24 net points. He advanced easily, and in his quarterfinal he survived a tiebreaker and pulled away from Julien Benneteau without giving up another game. Federer hit a dazzling 34 winners in that 69 minute match — an average of almost two and a half per game.

Federer’s recent embrace of a more aggressive game has been most beneficial in his rivalry with Djokovic. The top player’s defense is remarkable, but not as dangerous to Federer as the counter-punching of Nadal. It’s easier for Federer to hold his ground without having to fend off that wicked, high-bouncing forehand that is Nadal’s trademark shot.

In order to win this one, Djokovic will need to return well (unfortunately for Federer, that happens to be his opponent’s stock in trade) and keep Federer from taking control of the points with his third shot (during his own service games).  Federer will surely play to the Djokovic forehand, but he could find himself in trouble if Djokovic is willing and able to go down-the-line on that side — a strategy that will put Federer’s backhand under pressure and bring Djokovic’s trademark down-the-line backhand into play.

I don’t doubt that Djokovic can beat Federer in a rally match; I just doubt that Federer will allow Djokovic to turn this meeting into one. Federer can win it if he succeeds in putting pressure on Djokovic’s groundstrokes by coming to net and volleying effectively, and if he’s willing to really attack second serves he sees. He also needs to stand his ground on or just inside the baseline, no matter how withering the firepower. Djokovic’s talent for re-directing the direction of a rally is too powerful a skill to challenge.

Throughout his career, Federer has been more or less content to feel his way through points, relying on his talent, instincts, and penchant for the making the spectacular placement. While his recent, more aggressive style is more fraught with risk, it also offers greater rewards. It proceeds from a narrowing of his own options. Federer more willing than ever before to play as if move A demands move B, rather than move B, C, G or W.

More and more these days, Federer resembles a man with a plan. But Djokovic is perfectly capable of demonstrating the wisdom of that famous line uttered by former heavyweight champion of the world Mike Tyson: Everybody has a plan until he gets punched in the face.