by Pete Bodo
Mornin'. The first round of Davis Cup World Group play is bearing down on us fast, so let's take a look at the draw. I'll be analyzing the match-ups in the bottom, USA half of the draw. Steve Tignor will be back later with his thoughts on the top half match-ups, including that much-anticpated clash between the Czech Republic and Kazakhstan. Don't you just love Davis Cup?
I imagine you've already checked out the re-designed Davis Cup website; the ITF did an excellent job with it. But let's get down to business. We'll take the match-ups in order, starting from the bottom. The parenthetical in each headline refers to the nation's final position last year:
France (losing finalist) at Austria (def. Israel to qualify for WG): What does it say about the Austrian tennis infrastructure that the tie will be played in "The Vienna Airport, Hangar 3." Those yodeling, lederhosen-wearing, ruddy-cheeked and fun-loving Austrians sure know how to play a practical joke on visiting squads, right? l can already hear the din of all those Austrian feet stomping on temporary aluminum bleachers.
No harm in that, you ought to take home-court advantage, right? And I'm not joking when I say it would be fun to attend this one. There's something very old school about staging tennis in a hangar, and it hearkens back to the days when, if you wanted to see tennis in the winter, you had better be prepared to go to a school gym, a conventional hall, or a church basement. This has to be the first time big-time tennis will be played in an airport hangar, and I'm all for breaking new ground.
The Austrians would be facing an impossible mission were it not for the fact that the two best players in France, Gael Monfils and Jo-Wifried Tsonga, are both out of action with injury. Thus, Jurgen Melzer could conceivably ride partisan emotion to one of those great three-rubber performances, winning two singles as well as the doubles. Melzer is the first Austrian to crack the ATP Top 10 since the heyday of former No. 1 Thomas Muster; he's coming off a career year and has played pretty well so far in 2011.
Melzer was 5-1 as Austria battled back into the World Group last year, and while he can reasonably be expected to win both his singles, the doubles is an awfully big ask. Melzer will open the tie against crafty French captain Guy Forget's No. 2 choice, Jeremy Chardy (the ATP No. 55). Chardy is undefeated in Davis Cup; the bad news is that he's played just one match (a special prize if you know who he beat for his lone win). In the second match, Austrian veteran and No. 2 man, Stefan Koubek, is well past his prime (he's ranked outside the ATP Top 200) and unlikely to trouble French No. 1 and ATP No. 30 Gilles Simon.
In the pre-ordained fourth-rubber battle of the No. 1s, Melzer will play Simon. You can bet the Austrians will tailor the red clay to Melzer's specs, and remember that he's gone further at Roland Garros than any player on the French squad (he was a semifinalist last year). But two singles wins won't do the job. And doubles presents an enormous problem for Austria. Melzer played last year with Alexander Peya and Julian Knowle, neither of whom is on this squad. He'll be partnered with Oliver Marach, who's brought his doubles ranking up to No. 12. But Michael Llodra is a terrific 15-5 in Davis Cup doubles, and Benneteau is 2-0. So give the edge to France, but this one is no slam dunk. Not by a long shot.
********!Ivo Germany (def. South Africa to qualify for WG) at Croatia (lost in quarterfinals): This is a very tricky one to handicap, and another of those ties in which the doubles may prove critical, with a potential do-or-die fifth rubber showdown between two players unaccustomed to the big occasion: Ivan Dodig and Florian Mayer.
Germany has a 2-1 lead in this series, but the home squad has won every time. The tie will be held on an indoor hard court in Zagreb, so...advantage, Croatia, right? Well, maybe not, for the most tantalizing feature of this tie is that Marin Cilic will open the proceedings against the German No. 2 Florian Mayer—a guy who seems to have Cilic's number. Mayer is 2-0 against Cilic, having vanquished him at Wimbledon last year and Zagreb just a few weeks ago. Mayer didn't lose a set in either of those matches.
If Cilic gets nervous—and there's no pressure like the stress that comes with home-court advantage—Germany could pull off an upset. After all, Germany's two singles players are a mere single ranking position apart (Philipp Kohlschreiber is No. 35 and thus the official No. 1).
Cilic is the highest ranked among the singles players (No. 20), but Dodig is off to a great start this year, and he won his first ATP title on the same court where this tie will be played (and where Mayer last beat Cilic). I like Croatia's Dodig and Ivo Karlovic in the doubles (over Philipp Petzschner and relative unknown Christopher Kas), but if the Germans can snatch the doubles win, this could go to a decisive fifth rubber.
Spain (lost in quarterfinals) at Belgium (def. Australia to qualify for WG): This one has upset written all over it—did you see the way Belgium came back from a 1-2 hole to beat Australian in the qualifying?
Okay, I'm kidding. Australia was without Lleyton Hewitt, which means Australia had nobody. But give credit to the Belgians. They're game, and little Olivier Rochus (he's 5' 6") often plays big. As well, Belgium's Xavier Mailsse has found religion (in the gym and on the pratice court) and has worked his way back to respectable ranking of No. 51. But the caption for the lead photo here may as well be "Why is this man smiling?" Spain has world No. 1 Rafael Nadal, No. 6 David Ferrer and No. 9 Fernando Verdasco, so why don't we just stop wasting your time and mine and move on?
United States (def. Colombia to qualify for WG) at Chile (lost in quarterfinals): Chile's chances would be much better in this one if Fernando Gonazlez were available to play. But he's still recovering from hip surgery, and the naked truth is that the Chileans don't have a single player whose ranking is in double digits (Paul Capdeville, No. 165, is their top player). Still, this tie is on clay, at the storied Estadio Nacional, this is Davis Cup, and you can bet the home partisans are hoping that new U.S. captain Jim Courier will screw up.
Well, there's not a snowball's chance in hell of that happening. Courier was a Davis Cup stalwart in his playing days (he was 16-10 in singles at a time when he had to compete with Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Michael Chang and Todd Martin for a place on the team), and he's taking a seasoned team led by Andy Roddick, who's No. 2 (behind John McEnroe) on the USA's honor roll with 31 wins (and 11 losses). As usual, the United States also has the exceptional doubles team of Bob and Mike Bryan, and John Isner to carry the load in second singles.
The only way I can see the Americans faltering here is if Nicolas Massu, tapped for No. 2 singles despite his age (31) and ranking (241), can somehow recapture the legs and spirit that enabled him to become the only man in tennis to win Olympic gold in singles and doubles. He opens the tie against Andy Roddick, who isn't exactly a clay-court wizard—although he's a lot better on clay when he's playing a Davis Cup tie.
The biggest danger for the U.S. may be the prospect of injury. If either Roddick or Isner is injured once the tie is underway, Courier is locked into using one of the Bryans twins, who play exclusively doubles. That's always the risk a captain takes when he goes with a dedicated doubles team, instead of three serviceable singles players and a doubles specialist.